Gulf War 3.0: Scenarios Going Ahead in the Fifth Week

Given developments in the Gulf War 3.0 as of March 25– Four Likely Scenarios and when the first round of negotiations commence [1] Creation of a Negotiating Framework. [2] Discussion of Negotiating Framework [3] Hurting Stalemate [4] Resumption of hostilities – here is a detailed discussion of the same-

Developments So Far

After threatening destructive attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure with a view to enforce darkness on the country already devastated by multiple attacks, US President on March 23^rd created an offramp claiming that there has been an outreach by the Iranian leadership thus suspending the operations for five days.

Mediation

While traditional negotiators between US and Iran such as Oman and Qatar are parties to the War, Pakistan emerged as one of the key mediators between the US and Iran along with Turkey and Egypt. The proximity of the US President with Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Force Field Marshal Asim Munir is seen as one of the factors apart from the equidistance that Islamabad has kept with the US and Iran during the ongoing hostilities. While there is a strategic leverage for the mediators the risk of failure is high given the mistrust between both parties – US and Iran and Israel’s non participation in the negotiations.

US Proposal

US has floated a 15-point proposal via Pakistan aimed at opening a path toward a ceasefire as per a senior Iranian official quoted by Reuters. Tehran publicly denied that negotiations with Washington had begun. The 15 point proposal, described by Pakistani and Egyptian officials speaking to the Associated Press covers -sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, curbs on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, stronger International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring and guarantees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.  

Iranian Reaction

An Iranian military spokesman dismissed the proposals stating, “Do not call your defeat an agreement... Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves? You will see neither your investments in the region nor the former prices of energy and oil again until you understand this: stability in the region is guaranteed by the strong hand of our armed forces,” said the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Ebrahim Zolfaghari.           

Iran in turn has floated a five point proposal though the veracity of the same remains in doubt. These points include (1) A complete halt to "aggression and assassinations" (2) The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic. (3) Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations. (4) The end of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region (5) Iran's exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz as natural and legal right, and a guarantee for the implementation of the other party's commitments.

Military Developments

Amidst reports of an exchange of proposals by Iran and the United States, the US Department of War is planning to send thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf to give President Trump more options to order a ground assault as two contingents of Marines already on their way. The first Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard a huge amphibious assault ship is set to arrive around the end of the month.

Iran plans to open a new front in the Bab al-Mandab Strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands. Iran claims that it has the capability to pose a "credible threat" in the strategic strait that flows into the Red Sea adding to the ongoing closure of the Straits of Hormuz. Preparation for escalation during negotiations is not surprising and thus both sides will seek to leverage military capabilities with Iran’s strategic and US military advantage. Israel has not agreed to join the cease fire, thus how this plays out remains to be seen?

The Known and the Unknowns Dictating the Scenarios

The tangibles ahead of the first negotiating round which itself is uncertain are [1] Iran’s mistrust of the United States [2] Unity of the regime in Tehran with consolidation by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC], thus a hardline would be adopted at least in the initial round. [3] Limited influence of the mediators on both sides be it Pakistan, Egypt or Israel – thus their role is likely to be to provide a common venue for engagement rather than contribute to reconciliation.

Amongst the unknown factors are [1] Possible use of the offramp as a pause rather than pathway to tangible peace by the U.S. [2] Level of control and authority in Iran – Is it the Supreme Authority Mojtaba Khamanei, Mohammad Qalibaf the parliament speaker or the IRGC command. [3] Core issues for both sides on which compromise is unlikely for instance the nuclear for the United States and sanctions relief for Iran.

Scenarios Ahead

            It is anticipated that there would be extensive exchange of proposals by intermediaries before any “indirect talks,” are held by Iran and the US. The initial phase will be an agreement on the representatives for each side with Iran unlikely to accept Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – President’s special envoys. Iran could be represented by Saeed Aragchi the foreign minister who is trusted by the IRGC. On the negotiations commencing Two Positive and Two Negative scenarios are discussed as follows: –

            Positive 1 – Creation of Negotiating Framework. – Agreement to extend the cease fire, US pressure on Israel to join the process, Iranian opening of the Straits of Hormuz for shipping, US and Iran suspension of military build up and exchange of proposals for further round of talks with immediate sanctions relief. Likelihood – Unlikely. Impact highly positive geopolitically and on energy flows.

            Positive 2 –  Discussing Negotiating Framework. Agreement to extend cease fire for a limited period, Iranian suspension of threat for closure of the Bab El Mandeb, Military build up to slow down. Exchange of proposals for further negotiations with an agreement by the US to provide sanctions relief. Likelihood – Probable. Impact positive with caution.

            Negative 1 – Hurting Stalemate Exchange of proposals by both sides, limited cease fire with frequent violations and continued military posturing. Likelihood- Likely. Impact Limited negative extensive pressure on both sides to sustain engagement towards fruitful end of the War will be on the table.

            Negative 2 – Resumption of Hostilities. Breakdown of Negotiations. Likelihood. Cannot be ruled out.