Gulf War 3.0: A Fortnight Past, Scenarios Fortnight Ahead

Image Source Wikimedia Commons

We are now entering the second fortnight of Gulf War 3.0. So how is the war going, what have been the major outcomes so far and what would be the scenarios in the fortnight ahead, Immediate, Offramp and Long Term here is an overview

Firstly, the war objectives. Several objectives have been bandied about in the past fortnight by Israel and the United States.

"The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused: Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons," said Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. These are the military objectives.

His boss US President Donald Trump has spoken about several objectives in the past without any clarity as to what will be the overall political aim.

For Israel the objective has been regime change – a term variously interpreted and one that was unachievable from the very outset for a limited campaign – that was possibly the joint plan. The key element of the same was decapacitation of the Iranian Supreme Authority Ayatollah Khamanei. It was believed that with the assassination of Khamanei the Iranian regime will collapse, there will be rising protests on the streets by the Iranian public hating the clerical order fostering change in the political and governance structure.  The US too went along with this Israeli plan while adding more objectives as destroying Iranian missile and drone capability, the Iranian Navy and thereby achieve control of the Persian Gulf sea lanes for transit of oil and gas.

For Iran the objective was obviously regime survival.

Despite the decades of animosity of both the United States and Israel with Iran which predates the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it is apparent that a detailed study of the nature of the Iranian governance and security structure was lacking.

A belief of a top down hierarchical control structure assumed that with the Khamanei gone the regime will collapse. Experts on Iran in the United States, not so much in Israel had identified this as a gross miscalculation and underlined the layered structure of the regime, the absolute control of the IRGC on the internal and the leadership space and directional control over the Guards units across Iran.

In brief the outcome of Khamanei’s killing has been that the Iranian regime holds fast, son of Khamanei, Mojtaba has been elected as the Supreme Leader and the IRGC continues to launch of what is claimed as the 48^th Wave of Operation True Promise 4.

As per a report in the Tasnim News a media arm of the IRGC, the targets included, “Galilee, Golan, and Haifa, as well as US military bases in the region… using solid-fuel Khaybar-shekan (Khaybar-buster) missiles, liquid-fuel Qadr missiles, and destructive drones.

So how does the picture look from the other side. Briefing the media on March 13, in Washington, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed that the country's defense industrial base is now nearing complete destruction as well.  "Soon and very soon, all of Iran's defense companies will be destroyed," Hegseth said while providing an update on Operation Epic Fury from the Pentagon's press briefing room.   For example, as of two days ago, Iran's entire ballistic missile production capacity — every company that builds every component of those missiles — [has] been functionally defeated [and] destroyed," Hegseth said, also noting that assessment includes buildings, complexes and factory lines all across the country.

Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at the same briefing outlined that,” while significant damage has been done to Iran's navy, the regime still has the capability to harm friendly forces and commercial shipping — particularly in the Strait of Hormuz”.

Israel in the meanwhile has shifted focus on Lebanon where Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it struck a key bridge over the Litani River in southern Lebanon on March 14 and said it completed a series of strikes against Hezbollah's economic and military targets in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, and other areas on March 12.

What’s Next in Gulf War 3.0: The Fortnight Ahead?

As per a summary of events on March 13, published by Chinese State News Agency, Xinhua U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News that the United States plans to strike Iran "very hard over the next week," and that it would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump will be the one to decide "the pace, tempo and timing" of the Iran conflict. He also said that the United States will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to "remain contested or with a lack of flow of commercial goods."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told Xinhua in a recent interview that Iran is determined to defend itself against the U.S. and Israeli "aggression" as long as it takes.

Apparently, a regime collapse in Iran is not evident despite reports that Mojtaba Khamanei is injured. The command structure has demonstrated resilience and may see nomination of another Ayatollah to take place of Mojtaba in case he too is decapacitated. The solidity of the regime was also evident during the Quds Day rallies in Iran on March 13, traditionally last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan. The entire top political brass including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf and the Larijani brothers, Ali and Sadegh openly participated in the rally in Tehran.

With both sides unwilling to make any compromises or engage in negotiations, much will now depend on some of the unknowns summarized as below:-

·         Residual combat capability – missiles, drones, air defence munitions with both sides.

·         Resilience of the Iranian regime.

·         US willingness to commit ground troops.

·         Willingness of Iranian minorities for military rebellion.

·         Iranian people’s willingness to publicly oppose the regime.

·         Impact of the Horizontal Escalation in the region thus resulting in International and Regional Pressures.

·         Energy routes through the Persian Gulf and global oil crisis.

·         Information Flux – Narratives, Misinformation and Disinformation.

Two possible scenarios can be envisaged in the near term-

Immediate Scenario - Sustenance of the ongoing missile and drone exchange with increasing severity by the United States and Israel while horizontal escalation by Iran could be the most evident scenario in the immediate term.

An attempt by the United States to clear the Persian Gulf is expected to lead to contestations particularly in the Islands held by Iran in this strategic waterway. Even if these are pulverised through severe air bombardment these are unlikely to be safe for international maritime traffic.

Offramp Scenario – An offramp with both sides declaring victory could emerge as an option in case there is a degree of immediate exhaustion in terms of political will and internal and regional support in the United States and possible depletion of missile and drone armoury of Iran.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has laid out terms for ending the war with the United States and Israel as per an al Jazeera report as a possible sign of de-escalation from Tehran as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 13th day on March 13.

“The only way to end this war – ignited by the Zionist regime & US – is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,” Pezeshkian wrote on X.

A former commander of the IRGC who is possibly again donned the uniform has this to say as per the Tehran Times posted on X.

This remains an unlikely scenario for now given that the point of exhaustion may not have reached and there are no overt indications of any mediation. The most likely players for a mediatory role would be Turkey and Russia.

However, with visit of the US President Donald Trump to China from March 31 to April 02, there is a potential offramp that could be envisaged as Mr Trump would not like to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping with the war ongoing in the Middle East. Mr Xi may also be equally uncomfortable given that China has castigated the US and Israel for launch the war on Iran – a strategic partner of Beijing.

An offramp for now will restore the global energy disruption to some extent with a possible mechanism to ensure security of the Persian Gulf. Yet this may remain an interregnum portending another round of escalation unless there is a degree of seriousness to engaged in dialogue in which the regional Gulf countries will have to be included.

Medium to Long Term – Dismal Scenario for Iran. In the medium to long term, the scenario for Iran is dismal. With the economy on the brink even prior to the war began and massive destruction of civil infrastructure during the war, there is immense pain for the Iranian people whatever be the configuration of the regime.