War in West Asia [Middle East], A Criticality for South Asia

As the United States and Israel strikes on Iran enters the fifth day with no signs of any pull back by either side, the defining trends is the decapitating attack on Iran’s Supreme Authority Ayatollah Ali Khamanei. The strike was supposed to cripple the regime but Iran retaliated spraying missiles and drones across multiple locations in West Asia [Middle East]. With a war escalating in time and space, there is a noticeable alarm in South Asia. This is understandable given the diverse and close linkages that the two regions in terms of economy, energy, people to people with close to 10-15 million plus migrants of South Asian origin in the Gulf and even immediate impact on tourism due to disruption of flight schedules.

Thus challenges faced to a region in the developing World that has been looking for degree of stability post the era of Trump tariffs only seem to multiply post launch of Operation Lion’s Roar and Epic Fury by Israel and the US respectively and Iran’s response in terms of Operation True Promise 4. The criticality arises from several factors the most significant being that of safety of millions. The Middle East is seen as a region of promise and thus a whole sea of migrant workers are active in multiple countries. Even smaller countries in terms of population as Sri Lanka  have as of February 28, 2026, 1,007,855 nationals in 14 Middle Eastern countries. According to Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs around 1,729,288 Nepali nationals are currently living and working across the Middle East. These migrants remain a very critical pipeline to pump in thousands of dollars into economies through remittances each year. A long drawn war would imply their return and also review of policies by the Gulf countries for the future.

Energy security is another issue as the region is reliant on oil and gas imports. The Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates — are largest energy trading partners of countries as India, Pakistan as well as Bangladesh. Take the case of Sri Lanka. The Iran–US war sharply undermines Sri Lanka’s energy security, primarily through oil price spikes and supply disruptions. Sri Lanka spends about US$4.5 billion annually on fuel imports, and a 12% increase in global oil prices—already observed during recent Middle East escalations—adds roughly US$500 million in extra costs, straining foreign reserves and widening fiscal pressure.

 Any threat to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of global seaborne oil passes, would further endanger Sri Lanka’s access to affordable fuel and raise freight costs, deepening economic vulnerability.

Afghanistan is another country which is in distress. Kabul’s trade with Iran is valued at nearly $4 billionand after the suspension of Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan, Iran is the most important trading partners and a key transit route as per Tolonews. This includes  petroleum products, raw materials, construction supplies, and some food items.  Rising insecurity in Iran, particularly along transit routes, would imply that the country is virtually cut off for trade but for Central Asia and the air route to India.

The socio religious linkages which extend over the millennium with Iran meant that there would be a strong backlash with the assassination of Iran’s Ayatollah whom many regarded as a virtual spiritual head of Shia Islam. The regions Shia linkages with Iran are rooted in centuries of religious, cultural, and intellectual exchange, shaping identity and practice. For instance, there are deep roots of Indian regions of Awadh or Lucknow, Kashmir, and Kargil. Thus events in Iran evoke strong emotional responses among Shias. While there were rallies in India, in Pakistan the manifestation saw protesters clashing with law enforcement personnel near the US Consulate on Mai Kolachi Road.

There are limited strategic leverages that the countries in the region can employ, even though Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did reach out to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and reiterated the need for an “early cessation of hostilities.”  He also spoke with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and strongly criticised the attacks on the Gulf country apart from Crown Prince and prime minister of Saudi Arabia and other gulf leaders.  This apart, the ability to shape mediation for peace remains limited.

A prolongation of the conflict will only place South Asian countries at an extreme risk of energy and economic security with the alarming possibility of having to evacuate millions.