Why is this Gulf War 3.0?

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The Gulf shorthand for Persian Gulf and the states bordering it, six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain—along with Iran and Iraq is now possibly seeing what many are referring to as Gulf War 3.0. jogging the memory will reveal Gulf War 1 was the 1990-91 War for liberation of Kuwait from the Iraqi incursions, Gulf War 2 was for liberation of Iraq from the grip of Saddam Hussein and now the third iteration seems to be focused on another liberation from what the US and the West objectives appear to be of the Iranian people from the clerical regime. Ironically in both Gulf War 2.0 and 3.0 defanging of the state from nuclear weapons that were nonexistent was the casus belli for launch.

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Gulf War 1.0

Firstly, a brief comparison. While for Gulf 1.0 the aims of the war was clear that was to evict Iraqi aggressors from Kuwait and restore the Iraq Kuwait border as well as the oil supply chain through the same. This was the first time that a hesitant US military was venturing into the unknown sphere of a war in the region which was predominantly out of zone of influence yet not of interest. General Norman Swharzkopf who headed the US Central Command has outlined the measures taken to integrate the US forces in a new setting with bases in Saudi Arabia and rest of the region.  Perhaps this also set the stage for permanent bases for the US military in the Gulf, many of which are presently under attacks by Iranian missiles and drones.

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Gulf War 2.0

Gulf War 2 was all about Saddam Hussein and his alleged nuclear weapons, which were never recovered and thus the war aims have been questioned, so has been the US strategy of launching a quick campaign named as Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2023 claiming to be a part of the New  Way of War. Indeed, a weakened Iraqi military was quickly overcome and Baghdad seized. This followed a long campaign to bring order in a situation which replicated insurgency, saw the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the al Shams [ISIS] knocking on the gates of  Baghdad in 2014. Ironically, a covert partnership between US forces in Iraq and Iranian Quds Force an arm for external interventions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] led by Qassem Soleimani saw the defeat of the ISIS. Nevertheless it was apparent for both sides that this arrangement was transactional. Soleimani was later downed by an US airstrike while landing at Baghdad on January 03, 2020 a mission order by US President Donald Trump in his first tenure at the White House.

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Gulf War 3.0

The focus of Mr Trump and his advisors on the Gulf on Iran was obvious and appears now to be one of the main objectives of Trump 3.0. A brief campaign launched in June 2025 – Operation Midnight Hammer achieved success in extensive destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites many of which are buried deep underground. The objective was clear – preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The operation was launched just as talks were being held on the issue between Iran and the United States, a second round followed Midnight Hammer which was closed on February 26, with some indications of progress.

However that was not to be and the United States and Israel launched Epic Fury and Lion’s Roar respectively on February 28. This is what can now be called as Gulf War 3.0. More about the scenarios in the fortnight ahead later.