Iran-US War – Day 7 – What Lies Ahead

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Tracking the many imponderables, the Known Unknowns as we enter another contested day in what may be a long war on Iran.

As Day 7 of the US/Israel war on Iran ends, what we know is that United States President Donald Trump has sent a maximalist war objective of “unconditional surrender.” Taking to his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump rejected the prospect of a compromise amid Iranian confirmation of diplomatic mediation to end the conflict. “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Trump wrote. “After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

So what have been the developments so far, and what lies ahead? Here is a look.

Phase 4 Iran’s Missile Barrage

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) announced the successful launch of the 22nd wave of Operation True Promise 4 on March 6, 2026, followed by a 23rd wave against Israeli and American targets, claiming the deployment of new-generation missile systems. As per the IRGC Public Relations Office, the latest phase of the operation was a combined drone and missile strike. According to a report from Axios, following recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Tehran carried out retaliatory attacks against U.S. allies in the Middle East, including striking the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh with two drones that caused a small fire and minor damage. Corps said, referring to the occupied city that serves as the Israeli regime's technological hub.

The damage assessment is awaited.

What is now apparent is that this may not have resulted in substantial losses, while, on the other hand, it led to a depletion of the Iranian arsenal, though this remains unconfirmed.

The considerable drop in the number of drones and missiles has led the US to claim that Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have fallen by 90 percent since the first day of the conflict and drone attacks dropped by 83 percent over the same period.

According to a report from the Associated Press, Gulf officials feel that the United States focused on defending Israel and its own troops during recent missile and drone attacks in the Middle East, leaving countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain vulnerable as their interceptor supplies quickly ran low.

So far, the Kurdish front is not active as the spokesman for the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces issues a stark warning to the senior authorities in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq against cooperating with the United States and the Israeli regime against the Islamic Republic.

According to the Associated Press, Iran’s proxy fighters in Iraq have not launched attacks in response to possible directions from Iranian leaders, and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli airstrike may have affected their morale. According to a report from FDD's Long War Journal, the Houthis have not opened a new front in the Red Sea and the corridor remains open, which may be influenced by Saudi involvement.

The report also notes that Israel announced striking over 750 targets in Tehran, dismantling hundreds of missile launchers and terrorist sites, and killing senior Iranian figures in the first 100 hours of the conflict, indicating continued expansion of strikes within Iran.

Phase 5 US and Israel Preponderance and Strikes

In line with the same, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has warned of a devastating phase of air and missile attacks on Iran; what the targets are is not known.

Having achieved complete supremacy over Iranian airspace, the US and Israel Air Forces can move beyond the F-35 and F-22 stealth fighters to employ a vast array of F-15 and F-16 fighters and non-stealth bombers, thus considerably increasing the strike potential using precision as well as what are known as dumb bombs, approaching much closer to their targets.

However, what the targets would be at this stage if the missile, nuclear, and naval capabilities have been destroyed is unclear.

Decapitation of selective political leaders who may be resisting any form of capitulation would be one option, but do the US and Israel have the requisite intelligence to determine who is in control and which side they will flip? That is unclear.

The war may now enter the realm of strategic psychological warfare.

Regime Change in Iran and US Leverage

While US President Donald Trump has claimed that the US will have a role in the selection of the leader in Iran, it is unclear if the United States or Israel have any leverage in influencing who succeeds Iran’s Supreme Leader. This can only happen if there is a collapse of the Iranian regime, which remains under the control of multiple power centres in Iran for now, though the picture is highly unclear.

In the normal course, the next leader will be chosen by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body vetted by Iran’s own oversight institutions. According to a recent Time report, real power in Iran remains concentrated among established actors like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which oversees much of the country’s security and economic systems. While there is speculation about who holds authority—including figures such as Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, and political insider Ali Larijani—the question of who is truly in charge in Iran at this volatile moment remains unresolved.

In any case, none of these is likely to lead to a compromise with the US to the liking of President Donald Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Importantly, if President Trump wants to play a defining role, the outcome will have to be a relationship of victor and vanquished; it is apparent that this has not been achieved so far. Will the Phase 5 – Israel and US air campaign achieve the same remains to be seen?

If that fails, the ground option comes next. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that Iranian forces are “waiting” for a potential US ground invasion and threatened to kill and capture thousands of US troops.

In case the US and Iran plan to launch ground operations, this may be another long, drawn-out repeat of Iraq 2003, though with devastating consequences.

The Known Unknowns’

At this stage, thus, there are multiple imponderables or “known unknowns,” the famous phrase by Donald Rumsfeld, former US Secretary of Defence, used in the context of the Afghan and Iran operations launched in 2001 and 2003, some of which are listed as given below-

·         Who is controlling the IRGC and coordinating the operations?

·         Residual Missile Capability of Iran, including possible replenishments

·         Residual drone capability of Iran

·         Iran's Fast Attack Craft (FACs) have not yet come into action.

·         Iranian Midget Subs, which could cause substantial damage, are used on suicide missions.

·         Iranian naval mining of the Persian  Gulf.

·         Potential of the Artesh – Iranian armed forces, the IRGC Ground forces and the Basij.

·         On the diplomatic front, it is clear that Iran’s Foreign Minister continues to engage with his counterparts; it is unclear under whose direction he is working.

·         So the final Known Unknown is who is in charge in Iran, which we have already flagged before.