A Brief Look at Multiple Scenarios Ahead in the Iran-US War - Day 6

Beyond the fog of war, as the saying goes, Israel and the United States Operation Lion’s Roar and Epic Fury, respectively, followed by Iran’s Operation True Promise 4, could well be heading for a dangerous Phase 4 and 5.

First Three Phrases

But first, let us recount, in general terms, what is publicly known about the first three phases of the War.

In the first phase, the United States and Israel launched the operations for regime decapacitation, conducting massive bombardment of the Iranian command structure as well as the air defence and missile networks. It was anticipated in some quarters that the regime would collapse with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, but experienced hands possibly knew otherwise.

The second phase was launched by Iran's Operation True Promise 4 – carrying out widespread missile and drone attacks on Israel and United States military bases in the Middle East. These operations send an alarm across the world, including in India, given the threat to many migrants in the region.

Global air services transiting through Dubai and other Gulf hubs were crippled.

Energy supplies were also affected, while the de facto closure of the Persian Gulf and actuarial precautions led to a rise in global oil prices, putting multiple economies, including China and India, at risk.

In response to Iranian Operation True Promise 4, the United States and Israel expanded the scope of operations in what we call a Phase 3 - carpet bombing of the Iranian command structures in Tehran, as well as targeting an Iranian ship which was returning from India’s International Fleet Review in international waters off the shores of Sri Lanka.

The Fourth Phase

Iran’s reaction to these attacks is awaited, and it is unclear how much of the command structure is flattened out as Israel has hoped for, while how much continues to be active, which would be evident in the response in what will be the Phase 4 of the overall local war if Iran undertakes the same.

In case the Iranian command structure has collapsed, which is unlikely. However, mixed signals are coming; the challenge for the United States is the authority to negotiate with the regime in Tehran. There is no clarity about who is in command in Iran now, even though a triumvirate is said to be in power, including the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian. At the same time, the nominee of the slain Ayatollah’s long-time confidante, Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, has been granted powers for decision-making at least till a new Supreme Leader is appointed by Iran’s Assembly of Experts.  There is much speculation about who this is, with Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a top contender. 

In the current scenario, who is controlling the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] is unclear. While top commanders are gone, the command structure runs deep; how far it is affected, and who is now in command and his loyalty to Ali Larijani/Triumvirate, remain open questions.

There are more imponderables in this scenario.

But if the IRGC command is active and has the firepower to launch Phase 4, more attacks on select targets across the region can be anticipated.

Regime Change and Kurdish Option

Simultaneously, an internal regime change operation may be underway by the United States and Israel with the Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] and Mossad acting in tandem. It is unclear if the CIA had planned such an operation earlier and activated its network amongst the Kurdish activist groups in the North of Iran, and particularly in the Iraqi Kurdish belt. As per the CNN, Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are expected to take part in a ground operation in Western Iran.

In this case, rapid facilitation of such an operation is possible; however, at present, there are no indications that this is the case. In that case scenario, a long-prolonged operation can be anticipated.

Critical to the overall situation are the IRGC's residual military capability and its missile component. While the missile component may be destroyed, there are a large number of committed cadres of the IRGC, the Basij internal militia, and Iraqi militia affiliated with Iran who could raise a wall of resistance.

This could be a repeat of Iraq for the United States, a scenario that the Trump regime may dread internally, but may take the risk, given that the US Senate has approved the launch of war on Iran.