WEEKLY GLOBAL TRENDS AND FORECAST 29 JAN – 04 FEB 2026

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WEEK 5 - 2026

WEEKLY GLOBAL TRENDS AND FORECAST 29 JAN – 04 FEB 2026

COVERING GLOBAL, MIDDLE EAST, INDO PACIFIC, SOUTH ASIA AND INDIA

GLOBAL TRENDS AND FORECAST

VECTOR	REGION/COUNTRY	TREND	FORECAST	CHANGE IN TREND
UNILATERAL USE OF MILITARY POWER	GLOBAL, U.S AND OTHER MAJOR POWERS	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY	GLOBAL	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
MULTILATERALISM	GLOBAL	CONCERN	CONCERN	+VE
GREAT POWER COMPETITION	GLOBAL7	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	NIL
UN INFLUENCE	GLOBAL	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
ENERGY SECURITY	GLOBAL	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	- VE
ALLIANCE STRESS	NATO, EURO ATLANTIC	UNCERTAIN	CONCERN	-VE
NUCLEAR NON PROLIFERATION	US/RUSSIA	NEGATIVE	UNCERTAIN	+VE

MIDDLE EAST TRENDS AND FORECAST

VECTOR	REGION/COUNTRY	TREND	FORECAST	CHANGE IN TREND
REGIONAL STATE STABILITY	IRAN,  SYRIA, LEBANON	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
EXTERNAL INTERVENTION	IRAN, YEMEN, SOMALIA, GAZA	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
STATE NON STATE CONFLICT	YEMEN, SOMALI LAND	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
INTER STATE CONFLICT	IRAN/ISRAEL/US, SAUDI ARABIA/UAE	UNERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	+ VE
INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION	IRAN	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	+ VE
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS	PALESTINE/GAZA	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL

INDO PACIFIC TRENDS AND FORECAST

VECTOR	REGION/COUNTRY	TREND	FORECAST	CHANGE IN TREND
LEADERSHIP SUMMIT	US /CHINA, CHINA/RUSSIA,INDIA U.S.	POSITIVE	POSITIVE	NIL
GREAT POWER COMPETITION	US/CHINA, CHINA/JAPAN	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	NIL
ALLIANCE STRESS	US AND ALLIES, QUAD	POSITIVE	UNCERTAIN	-VE
INTER STATE CONFLICT	CAMBODIA-THAILAND	POSITIVE	CONCERN	-VE

SOUTH ASIA TRENDS AND FORECAST

VECTOR	REGION/COUNTRY	TREND	FORECAST	CHANGE IN TREND
INTER STATE CONFLICT	PAKISTAN/INDIA, PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
ELECTIONS	MYANMAR	NEGATIVE[1]	NEGATIVE[2]	NIL
	BANGLADESH	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	NIL
	NEPAL	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	NIL
TERRORISM	PAKISTAN	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	-VE
STRATEGIC CONVERGENCE	CHINA PAKISTAN	POSITIVE	POSITIVE	NIL
INTER STATE RELATIONS	INDIA/BANGLADESH	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	- VE
POLITICAL EXCLUSION	AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN	CONCERN	CONCERN	NIL
HUMANITARIAN STRESS	AFGHANISTAN	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
INTERNAL SECURITY	BANGLADESH	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL

INDIA TRENDS AND FORECAST

VECTOR	REGION/COUNTRY	TREND	FORECAST	CHANGE IN TREND
GEOPOLITICAL DILEMMA	VENEZUELA, IRAN,  MYANMAR, GAZA BOARD	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	NIL
ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY	EUROPEAN UNION/UNITED STATES	POSITIVE	POSITIVE	NIL
NEIGHBOURHOOD STRESS	BANGLADESH	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	NIL
MARITIME AND COASTAL SECURITY	INDIAN OCEAN REGION	POSITIVE	POSITIVE	NIL
DEFENCE CAPABILITY BUILDING	INDIAN AIR FORCE	NEGATIVE	NEGATIVE	-VE
	INDIAN NAVY	POSITIVE	POSITIVE	NIL
YOUTH EMPLOYMENT	URBAN/RURAL	CONCERN	CONCERN	NIL
MILITANCY	NORTH EAST/J &K	UNCERTAIN	UNCERTAIN	NIL
RADICALISATION	ALL INDIA	CONCERN	CONCERN	NIL

HEIRARCHY TRENDS AND FORECAST

POSITIVE	Credible indicators of improvement in situation
UNCERTAIN	Limited or incomplete information for making accurate assessment.
CONCERN	Indicators suggest possibility of deterioration
NEGATIVE	Indicators demonstrate deterioration of situation leading to possible adverse outcomes.

Note: Trends and forecasts are derived from qualitative analysis of publicly available information. Recipients are encouraged to conduct their own evaluations before making any policy or operational decisions.  

[1] While elections outcome is in in favour of Myanmar Military supported USDP, the non- inclusive polls in a country in state of civil war has led to negative trend and forecast in terms of contributing to overall stability

[2] While elections outcome is in favour of Myanmar Military supported USDP, the non- inclusive polls in a country in state of civil war has led to negative trend and forecast in terms of contributing to overall stability