Beyond Conspiracy Theories Strategic Impact of CMC Sackings

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Even as most commentaries are dwelling on conspiracy theories, China’s announcement of investigation into two senior military officials, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, suspected of serious violations of discipline and law is expected to cause major geopolitical concerns far beyond the impact on the Chinese national command or the military.

Zhang Youxia

With Zhang a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) the second ranking on the Commission removed from the chain, the sudden vacuum is bound to have an impact on several strategic issues ranging from the PLAs nuclear command chain, strategic systems development, political controls and finally for India approach to border issues. The Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) ranks directly below Xi Jinping, who serves as CMC Chairman. The role combines political authority with operational oversight, making the vice chairman effectively the second highest military leader in the country.

Liu Zenli

Liu Zenli is a member of the CMC and chief of staff of the CMC Joint Staff Department was responsible for operational coordination of the PLA’s gigantic structure with multiple theatre commands. The PLA Joint Chief of Staff plays the most central operational roles in China’s military hierarchy as he heads the Joint Staff Department (JSD) of the CMC which exercises direct control over the armed forces. His removal is also have a strategic impact that will reverberate beyond the immediate responsibilities.

PLA Command Management and Loyalty

While questions have been raised over reasons for the removal and given the opacity of the Chinese military functioning the larger issue of Communist Prty PLA relations, control of the President and Chairman CMC Xi Jinping over the PLA, higher command and strategic direction. commitment by the PLA to the Party will continue to be raised in the years ahead.

Given the series of removal of CMC members in the past couple of years, the grounds of which are unlikely to be made public even within the Chinese Communist Party, opaque functioning of the Worlds second largest military is a serious issue that will have to be factored in geopolitical risks in the years ahead.