China’s V Day Parade: Exploring the Nuances of the Grand Display

China's Newest ICBM DF 61

Military parades are grandiose in ceremonialdemonstration of goose-stepping troops, monstrous missiles and aerial flypast which are meticulously choreographed for a stunning effect. Underlying the themes and exploring nuances however assumes importance.

Geopolitics of the Parade

Exploring China’s grand Victory Day parade on September 3^rd to mark the 80th anniversary of China's victory over Japan during the Second World War there are multiple messages from demonstration of strategic capability of the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] to the spectacle of Beijing’s ability to collect partners and friends of varying hues – Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korean leader Kim Jong un to the unlikely leaders from South and South East Asia such as Nepal and Malaysia amongst others. For Kim Jong un it was possibly the first such international gathering and demonstrated China’s acceptance of the North Korean leader’s legitimacy with multiple challenges in the past.

This was more than China showing diplomatic heft and military muscle, the Parade was also about propping up pariah regimes and leaders as Putin, Kim Jong un and Burma’s military dictator Min Aung Hlaing and placing them in the company of leaders as Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto or Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

This was a very unusual potpourri ranging from authoritarian leaders to democracies of the Global South. Indeed, some of the latter’s presence at the event demonstrated Beijing economic and diplomatic clout in South and South East Asia.

A notable omission was India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi who had just left Tianjin after attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit on September 01. For Mr Modi strategic partnership with Japan implied that he could not be present at an event specifically held to vilify Tokyo for the past. Importantly the British Indian Army was one of the important constituents that had contributed to the Second World War in the defeat of the Axis powers then, but the present historical messaging in India honours the Indian National Army led by a notable freedom fighter Mr Subhash Chandra Bose. Thus, it would have been out of place for Mr Modi being in Beijing’s parade in more ways than one.

Undoubtedly the parade was a notice to China’s opposition ranging from Japan to the United States and the West in general.

Strategic and Military Demonstration

For China the parade marked a milestone, showcasing PLA’s military and nuclear capabilities for domestic and foreign audiences.

President Xi Jinping in his opening remarks highlighted the duty of the PLA thus, “The Chinese PLA has always been a heroic armed force that the Party and the people can fully trust and rely on. All service members must faithfully fulfill their sacred duties, accelerate the development of a world-class military, resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, provide strategic support for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and make greater contributions to world peace and development!” Adding a degree of religiosity in the message only exemplified the political rather than the professional inkling of the PLA.

Looking at the military weapons display per se it was for the first time that China's nuclear triad, including a new ICBM and long-range missile, as well as drones and hypersonic missiles were on display with reports of some of these integrated with Artificial Intelligence.

A new ICBM, the DF-61 was displayed for the first time and appears to be a large missile with a Transporter-Erector-Launcher [TEL] having eight axles indicating it is mobile and redeployable at short notice.  

No test of the DF 61 has been carried out so far and this is estimated by analysts as around 11,000 kilometers. DF5C which was another new revelation of the older DF 5 which is reportedly having MIRV capabilities with possible 10 missiles.

DF-31BJ is a new variant that's an ICBM possibly a silo variant. On display were also the JL 1, ALBM air launch ballistic missile and the JL3, submarine launched ballistic missile.

Apart from the ICBMS intermediate range ballistic missile DF 17 was also on display which is said to be carrying China's hypersonic glide vehicle, the DFZF. DF26D, a dual – conventional and nuclear swappable warheads was also on display.

In terms of hypersonic. the YJ21, air launched version and a ship launched version of it were also on display.

Current estimates reveal that China has 600 nuclear warheads growing steadily at 20 % or 120 per year which is a hefty number.

Strategic Messaging

Importantly the missiles on display indicate that regional countries would be mainly facing the conventional threat while globally, but China sought to demonstrate the nuclear capabilities globally despite the No First Use or possibly due to NFU as a display of second strike capability comprising of range and speed of launch.

Another important display was air, missile and drone defence with HQ29 in the lead. The PLA is developing an entire array of capabilities in this sphere ranging from kinetic to laser and electronic and electromagnetic.

Domestically the parade marked a significant political victory for Xi Jinping, being the first major military pageant in several years—the last notable one held in 2019 with participation of a plethora of the global South despite the absence of the West except for leaders from Serbia and Slovakia.

While the parade highlighted China’s technological advancements and growing alliances, questions remain about the real combat readiness of the PLA which continues to be rocked by internal challenges of corruption and combat readiness.

Nevertheless, Indian armed forces need to be prepared for the PLA fielding effective strategic and combat capabilities rather than basing calculations on perceived weaknesses.