China’s Fourth Plenum and 15th Five-year plan: PLA Role and Capability Development

Xi Jinping at the Inauguration of Fujian Aircraft Carrier

Five core themes identified in the Fourth Plenum for the PLA were absolute loyalty to the Party, enhancing combat power, innovation, civil military fusion and 2027, 2025 and 2050 steps to a World class military.

While unceremonious sacking of nine senior generals of the People’s Liberation Army [PLA] including a Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission [CMC] was much in the limelight just before the Fourth Plenum, during the session emerged a degree of clarity in role definition of the PLA and capability development during the 15^th Year Plan which need deliberation.

Here is a preliminary view-

As an initiation, a look at the official version may be useful.

The Chinese Ministry of defence spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang at the monthly press Conference on October 30^th when questioned on how the military will ensure implementation of the spirit of the plenum given the roles and capabilities identified during the meet said, “Focusing on building a strong country and national rejuvenation, the plenum assessed the trends of the times and the broader strategic picture, and made major plans and set clear requirements for achieving the centenary goal of the PLA on schedule and modernizing national defense and the armed forces with high quality, which provides a clear direction and fundamental guidance for the military to open up new prospects for national defense and military modernization during the period covered by the 15th Five-Year Plan”.

Zhang went on to state, “Studying and implementing the spirit of the plenum thoroughly is a major political task for the whole Party, country, and the military at present and for the foreseeable future. The military will thoroughly study, internalize and implement the content and essence of President Xi's important speech and the plenary session. We will align our thoughts and actions with the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee, the CMC, and President Xi”.

“The Chinese military will unite more closely around the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, gain a better understanding of the decisive significance of Two Affirmations [Xi Jinping’s status and Thought], enhance Four Consciousnesses[Political, National, Core and Alignment], strengthen Four-sphere Confidence[Path, Theory, System of socialism with Chinese characteristics and culture], ensure Two Upholds [Xi Jinping’s core position and authority and centralized leadership of the Party’s Central Committee], and implement the CMC chairman responsibility system,” Zhang said.

“With unwavering determination, we will forge ahead with enterprise and fortitude to achieve the military's centenary goal, and accelerate the transformation into a world-class military, thus providing a strong strategic support for building a strong nation and realizing national rejuvenation through the Chinese path of modernization,” he concluded.

Beyond the semantics the tenets outlined based on Xi Jinping Thought during the Plenum with additional reading of the proceedings can be summarized as follows:-

First and the most important was emphasis on control of the Chinese Communist Party over the PLA. This will be absolute. Total obedience to the Party’s command is essential. Ideology and party loyalty will remain supreme during the period of the 15^th Five Year Plan.

Second, Chinese style modernization with Chairman Xi’s strategic blueprint was emphasized distinguishing the same from models of other countries’ armed forces.  

Areas emphasized include joint and all domain operational capability, networked operations, and unmanned systems which should lead to greater combat effectiveness.

Evolving new military theory with Chinese characteristics will be encouraged.

Knitting together strategic deterrence vis a vis new domain forces will remain critical.

Building up “Assassin’s Mace” systems which include directed energy, high magnetic pulse and covert attacks was emphasized.

Training will include basic, combined, and joint training simulation, scenario based joint exercises and joint training will  be emphasized with capability to win wars.

Third, capability development will be progressed in three timelines identified 2027, 2035 to 2050 - defined as near, medium, and long term for the military to become a world-class force.

Fourth, to gain superiority over international competition innovation will be mantra with emphasis on informatized and intelligentized warfare through self-reliance.

Fifth, civil military synergy is underlined by building a common work culture and coordinating actions in all spheres from defense science and technology industry, common military and civilian standards industrial resilience and supply chains.  

Mobilisation, strategic pre-positioning of stocks, reserve forces, strengthen modern border, maritime, and air defense construction will ensure national defence.

Conclusion

China’s President and Chairman of the CMC Xi Jining’s focus on PLA modernisation remains on consolidation of personal and party power and stranglehold on the organization in all respects. Within this framework modernization to prepare for a competitive strategic environment is evident with development of combat power the core element. With timelines in place, assessments and accountability are well defined. Despite the emphasis on transformation based on Chinese characteristics, evolution of modern military trends has been factored in.

Will the PLA become the globally dominant force that Xi desires by 2050 however remains to be seen?