Rubbelisation: Dangerous New Scenario Emerging in Iran

Unidentified Refinery from Tasnim News Agency Iran

The Iran - US/Israel War is moving to a new dangerous phase from military to the economic and energy and may end up in rubbelisation of Iran, a possible objective of Israel on the lines of Gaza. The time to stop the mayhem is now before the world singes from this fratricidal war in the Middle East.

While Iran has been engaging economic and energy infrastructure in the Gulf as retaliation to the US and Israeli bombardment, the latest attacks indicate that possibly having exhausted military targets without achieving a capitulation of the regime, crippling Iran’s energy infrastructure is now being undertaken. Thus on March 18, Israeli strikes targeted facilities linked to South Pars and the onshore hub at Asaluyeh in Bushehr Province as per multiple media reports.

The South Pars with Qatar’s North Dome is the world’s largest natural gas field, holding an estimated 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas and 50 billion barrels of condensate. Qatar, directly blamed Israel, while the United Arab Emirates branded the attack a "dangerous escalation" threatening global energy security.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)’s one of the many media arms published a warning by the organisation to members of the public to stay clear of oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The Report named, for refineries to include 1. Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia, 2. Al Hosn gas field in the United Arab Emirates, 3. Al-Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia, 4. Mesaieed petrochemical complex and Mesaieed holding company (a subsidiary of Chevron) in Qatar 5. Ras Laffan refinery (phases 1 and 2) in Qatar

The Report alarmed even US President Trump into action who posted a long message on Truth Social stating that the United States was not aware of the targeting of the facility by Israel.

“Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen,” and went on to tamp down any escalation.

What would be impact of Mr Trump’s call is unclear, as the ball is in Iran’s court, this is a leverage that Tehran may exercise given the consistent attacks by Israel and the US decapacitating several top leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamanei and his security chief Ali Larijani.

The targeting has been extended to the Iranian and the IRGC military, missile and naval assets which have suffered extensive damage. Iran has retaliated in full measure through the level of losses incurred by US or Israel reman low but so is the asymmetry in tolerance for punishment.

If the war turns to economic and assumes the proportion of ‘rubbelisation,’ as Israel has attempted in Gaza, Iran will be able to impose a high cost on the energy infrastructure in the Gulf targeting specific facilities which it apparently has the capability to cause substantial damage having residual missile and drones – suicide for the purpose.

Such targeting will impose costs not only on the Gulf neighbours but also on global energy security. Al Jazeera reported that “Oil prices have risen more than 5 percent following an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field.

The  Gulf War 3.0 - Iran - US/Israel War is thus moving to a new dangerous phase from military to the economic and energy and may end up in rubbelisation of Iran, a possible objective of Israel on the lines of Gaza. The time to stop the mayhem is now before the world singes from this fratricidal war in the Middle East.