Celebrations, Scepticism as Iran and US Jointly confirm MOU

After weeks of hedging and declaration of an initial cease fire on April 08, multiple rounds of violations on the main Iran and US – Hormuz front and Israel and Lebanon, there is now hope that an initial MOU creating the framework for a final accord between United States and Iran.

Yes, celebrations are due for cessation of hostilities and early opening of the Straits of Hormuz, yet there is a high level of scepticism on possibility of a long route to the final agreement beyond the specified 60-day period and what was achieved in a fruitless war that disrupted the global economy and is likely to reset the Middle East in a way that may benefit Iran.

Here is a review of the developments-

US and Iran Confirm Agreement

The United States and Iran officially confirmed an agreement on terms and conditions for a Memorandum of Understanding the immediate impact of which is cessation of hostilities and reopening of the Straits of Hormuz.

US President Mr Donald Trump on his social media platform Truth Social announced in two successive tweets confirmed the agreement.

The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP

He followed this up with another tweet an hour later stating

This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Iran’s leadership which has been hedging in the past also confirmed the agreement.

Iranian official media source Tasnim News Agency reported that “Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) announced by Tehran and Washington on Monday morning will end war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

In a statement released SNSC secretariat said as per Tasnim, “Based on the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, the text of the memorandum of understanding regarding the end-of-war negotiations (Islamabad talks) between Iran and the United States was finalized on the evening of June 15,” the statement read.

“Under the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, are ended immediately and permanently. Furthermore, the naval blockade against Iran is terminated immediately and completely.”

The SNSC secretariat added that the MoU will be officially signed on Friday, June 19and also added that, “Talks toward a final agreement will be postponed until after the other side has implemented its commitments under the memorandum”.

Main Points of the MOU

An Opinion Piece in the Indian Express as well as other media reports have highlighted some of the main points of the MOU.

Opening of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran and removal of blockade by the US Navy within 30 days of the MoU’s signing.

Release of $24 billion in Iranian frozen assets, no new sanctions on Iran until a final agreement, temporarily waive oil sanctions and negotiate a reconstruction and development plan (reportedly worth $300 billion) for Iran within 60 days of the MoU.

The US will militarily withdraw from areas surrounding Iran, this appears to be the most significant concession to Iran though areas surrounding Iran are not defined.

Iran to never acquire nuclear weapons and maintain the status quo on its nuclear programme — that is further enrichment — pending a final agreement within 60 days of the MoU’s signing. Iran’s late Supreme Authority, Ayatollah Khamanei had time and again indicated that Iran will not manufacture a nuclear weapon calling it as ‘Haram’ or sacrilege.

Thus, these are not new concessions by Iran though the Trump team will flag this as a major achievement.

Concerns of Sceptics

President Trump has repeatedly promised by some accounts 37 times, an accord with Iran is around the corner.

One of the core issues that will continue to raise concerns is Israeli objectives in Lebanon with reference to the Hezbollah – a core ally of Iran. Are the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government on board will be a major factor.

The MOU also appears to leave significant areas of disagreement unresolved and subject to further negotiations, especially Iran’s nuclear program and the wide range of U.S. sanctions that have been imposed on Tehran.

The emerging framework has, therefore, been designed not to resolve the issue but to postpone it until after a broader agreement is secured.

For US President Donald Trump it was important to go to the G 7 Summit with a victory in his hand and is likely to openly tout the limited MOU as a major success.

But Democrats in the United States are already raising the heat over the war in general and the MOU in particular.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on “Fox News Sunday” criticised the MOU stating, “So, we have spent billions of dollars. We’ve lost 14 personnel killed in action, hundreds wounded, and we’ve disrupted the world economy. And we’re getting basically less than what we had under the JCPOA, which President Trump walked away from,” Reed told Fox News host Shannon Bream.

Iran on the other hand is likely to follow the familiar course of delaying negotiations to extract maximum concessions.

Overall, the World should celebrate if the cease fire and Straits of Hormuz open for merchant shipping while Iran and the US grapple with the knottier issues in the days and weeks ahead.