Iran’s Graveyard Strategy: How An Armed Elite is Holding the People Hostage

The fundamental objectives of modern governments in the 21st century are economic and social welfare of the people. Towards this end internal and external policies are framed and cover holistic security in the widest sense.

Nations face security challenges be it of ideological divergence bordering on existential enmity as between Iran and Israel or territorial and border sovereignty say India and Pakistan or India and China.

Within these limitations national security strategy is framed to preserve economic objectives and sustainable development for the people at large.

China pursues the “Chinese dream”, India seeks to achieve the status of a developed nation or Viksit Bharat by 2047 – a century after independence. India’s military strategy is framed as deterrence and war avoidance.

This was also the reason why Operation Sindoor was called off within four days on May 10, even though possibly all strategic objectives were not attained. Yet the impact of a longer war on the economy, incoming investment and the confidence of institutions prevented extension of the war with Pakistan.

On the other hand, Iran has adopted what can only be called, ‘Graveyard Strategy’.

The aggressive self- preservation streak of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has led to extensive losses to the nation as a whole human as well as economic.

As of last count estimates of deaths to the regime are approximately 3375 Iranians and 2509 Lebanese citizens, mostly the Hezbollah aligned with Iran.

By Iranian government’s own estimates losses to the economy have been $270 billion in damage as of April 17^th or around 57% of GDP, suggesting a long period of recovery.

Middle East Institute Report estimates each additional month of war could set the Iranian economy back by more than five years, compounding impact on capital stock and productivity. We are now already in a month from that Report.

Iranians have been hit by spiralling prices for food, medicine and other goods, massive job losses and business closures. Meanwhile, Iran’s rial currency has lost over half its value in the past year, falling to a record low of 1.9 million to the dollar at the end of last month.

Hadi Kahalzadeh, an Iranian economist and research fellow at Brandeis University is quoted by Newsday as stating, “Iran can probably avoid a complete economic collapse or total shortage of essential goods, but at a very high cost. The main cost will be passed to ordinary Iranians through higher inflation, more poverty, weaker services and a much harder daily life.”

While over the years Iran has developed alternatives to sanctions, these have contributed to survival not economic development and growth.

What more, Iran has lost trust of neighbouring Gulf States permanently even as relations with countries as Saudi Arabia have always been tense, the direct attacks on the plea that they were supporting the United States means that confidence is broken almost forever.

While it is nobody’s case to support the brutal air and missile campaign launched by the US and Israel on Iran violating international law and UN Charter including the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Authority Ayatollah Ali Khamanei and other key leaders such as Ali Larijani, the hard security state which provided the IRGC primacy in policy has only brought ruin to the Iranian people.

Iranian leadership may claim humbling of the superpower the United States and its ally Israel though part of the same is due to poor military planning and strategy adopted by the two aggressors, the consequences for the Iranian people spell doom for decades even if the war ends soon.