Ending the Straits of Hormuz impasse in Two Weeks: An Option
- Security Risks Research
- 4 hours ago
- 3 min read
An option to end the current impasse in the Straits of Hormuz in the next two weeks could be exercised by the United States after May 15, and it is not more negotiations with Iran.
The Iran US war with Israel concomitantly joining in the aerial and missile skirmishes also including Hezbollah in Lebanon is now entered the 74th Day.
There is a stalemate in the ongoing negotiations for a settlement between the United States and Iran.
On the last count, Iran’s counter proposal to end the War which came after several days of the US 14 point one was, “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” posted President Trump on his Truth Social platform on May10. “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it, TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!,” said Mr Trump.
This places not just Iran and the United States but the World in a strategic constriction given rising price of oil and gas much of which is now limited by transportation through the Straits of Hormuz effectively blocked by Iran posing direct threats of attacks by drones, midget submarines and missiles as well as the actuarial concerns of global insurance companies of mercantile shipping through contested waters.
The urgency of opening the Straits of Hormuz is critical.
Countries as India which have been fairly confident of staving off the crisis through a balance of diplomacy, strategic oil reserves and expanding the sources of supplies beyond the Gulf are sufficiently concerned for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to call upon citizens to reduce oil consumption and preserve foreign exchange through work from home and reduction of foreign travel.
Global pressure on the U.S. and Iran to end the crisis remains high and even the United States is feeling the pinch on the energy front despite the strategic stock buffers.
There are apparently three options that are being discussed for the United States now after the failure of this round of diplomatic exchange of proposals for ending the war:–
1. Reopen the War with Iran resuming full scale attacks on Iranian military and other infrastructure. This option may not assure outcomes in the desired time frame as the Iranian regime has been inured to more strikes and willing to take on consequent economic hardships.
2. Continue the negotiations track which given Iran’s reputation of conducting talks over months if not years is unlikely to lead to a desirable outcome within the short term.
3. Relaunch Project Freedom the maritime security initiative to eliminate threat to shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This may require use of military force mainly US warships clearing the Straits physically.
This mission was undertaken when Project Freedom was launched for the first time but was abandoned to give space for negotiations. The threat of outbreak of hostilities including a possible decapacitating attack on a UN Navy warship however remains high.
U.S. Central Command is expected to have mapped the Iranian maritime threat in the Straits by now from possible mines to Iranian midget submarines, drones and missiles. US Navy warships are formidable self-contained fighting platforms with air and missile defence as well as anti-submarine defences including against midget subs.
These are well capable of an operation running meeting the gauntlet from Iranian drones, missiles and midget submarines. Such a clearance operation of the Straits of Hormuz of Iranian threat could take between one to two weeks and is the shortest route to safe maritime traffic followed by deployment of warships to prevent further disruptions by Iran.
Having cleared the Straits of Hormuz the leverage that Iran has in negotiations with the US will be lost and thus making Tehran hopefully more amenable for dialogue on nuclear and other issues.
The United States and particularly President Donald Trump will have to bite the bullet so to say with the US Navy providing him the confidence to undertake Project Freedom II with minimum losses.
An opportune time for the same would be after the U.S. President Donald Trump visit to China planned May 13 to 15.
Whatever emerges from the Trump and Xi Summit, China is unlikely to provide any assurance of pressure on Iran to open the Straits. Another reason for the United States to restart Project Freedom.
