What’s Impeding an Iran and US Accord?

Image Source Freepik

A review of the nine critical issues impeding up an accord between the US and Iran and whether this can be achieved in the coming week.

Almost ten days after the Cease Fire declaration  by US and Iran on April 08, five days after the first direct talks between the US and Iran and the same period to go before expiry of the lull on April 22, the two warring parties are yet to come to a compromise.

Will the Cease Fire breakdown and fighting resume as the US Secretary of War noted in a media briefing on April 16, that the military was ready to impose a more severe punishment on Iran if there was no closure to the negotiations on April 22? Or will an accord be made in the coming days.

Much will depend on some of the key issues that have held up a deal so to say and the salient points of differences are outlined as below-

1. Mistrust on both sides but more so in Iran of reliability of the United States administration under President Trump having pursued the military option even as negotiations were ongoing at least twice in the past one year.

2. Iranian negotiating tactics where the objective is to work for a final deal rather than an interim accord to ensure sustainability. Thus all technical facets need to be worked out while the US prefers a general agreement to be followed up detailed framework at a later stage. The Trump administration is always impatient and thus urgency of an announcement of a deal is more that it sustainability. This naturally makes Iran wary.

3. Relinquishing of the 400 odd kgs of enriched Uranium by Iran, the nuances of the same and resistance by Tehran are the obvious concerns.

4. Iran’s abdication of the right to enrich – the difference between the two sides is for the period given that being a signatory of the NPT, Iran has a right to do so. Iran is looking for an enrichment embargo for 5 years whereas the US has demanded one for 20 years. Importantly, the Trump administration is keen that this clause betters that of the JCPOA that was worked out by the Obama administration.

5. Freedom of Navigation of the Straits of Hormuz will remain a sticky point as at present US and Iran have claimed blockades. Reuters reported that Tehran could allow ships to sail through the Omani side of the Strait.

6. Release of Iranian funds held in multiple countries on the US instructions.

7. Removal of sanctions on Iran.

8. War reparations with estimates by Iran claiming US $ 270 billion as an initial estimate. The cost of restoration of the Iranian economy on a sound footing will be much higher and may go on for decades.

9. Cease fire between Israel and the Hezbollah and Israeli pullout from Southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. While a cease fire has been agreed upon between Israel and Lebanon the Hezbollah is not party to the same and neither has Israel agreed to pull out of Lebanon.