Iran and US Negotiations: One Fundamental and Two Sticky Points Holding up a Deal

The fundamental of who has won the war and the sticky points of passage through the Straits of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear file will have to be resolved for a forward movement in Iran and US negotiations.

US President Donald Trump has indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran to allow the two countries to continue peace talks ‌to end the war just as the two-week truce was set to expire on April 22 Washington time.

Given that Mr Trump’s announcement was unilateral based on as he claimed a request made by the Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and the Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir, Iran was obviously not on board. Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said Iran had not asked for a ceasefire ​extension and repeated threats to break the US blockade by force.

The narrative in Iran is that the US has sought the cease fire admitting success of the Iranian strategy as per the Tasnim News. “The first meaning is that Trump has lost the war. He had tested and implemented all possible scenarios during the war”, says the Tasnim report.

Iran has not accepted the cease fire stating that if the blockade of the  Straits of Hormuz remains there will be no negotiations.

So where do we go from here.

Clearly there are fundamentals arising from the situation as of April 22 as to who has won the war – a rather presumptuous question given that the losses suffered by Iran of over $ 273 Billion by Tehran’s estimate denote the whatever be the outcome of negotiations the Islamic Revolutionary government has failed to secure the economy and future prosperity of the people.

But that is not important for the hardline IRGC leadership which feels that it has won the War while for the US President Donald Trump, the narrative of winning the War in the United States is important to assuage the adverse sentiment in the domestic audience with the acceptance of the war by the American public falling to below 40 percent.

Success for the US would mean what has been defined by Mr Trump a nuclear deal better than his predecessor Mr Barack Obama in 2015. In fact, by committing to the same the US President may have given a handle to Iran to leverage the talks but more about that later. So, the nuclear deal including approximately 400 kgs of dust lying at an unknown location or buried deep inside and denial of enrichment to Iran for at least 20 years remains the first sticky point.

But to arrive at the first sticky point, the threshold of the second which is of immediate importance needs to be crossed and that is control of the Straits of Hormuz.

While Mr Trump announced extension of the cease fire, he also declared that the US Navy will continue to blockade Iranian ports. At least two Iranian merchant ships have been boarded by the US Navy one in the Persian Gulf and the other in the Indian Ocean till the filing of this report.

Iran clearly sees this as a violation of the cease fire and Tasnim Report has clearly stated, “A continued naval blockade means the continuation of hostilities; Iran will not open the Strait of Hormuz at least as long as the naval blockade remains in, and will break the blockade by force if necessary”.

So, who will blink first will be dependent on who has the urgency to claim success and it appears that the United States may be in a corner for now.

Hopefully there will be a resolution soon for the global energy supply chain cannot withstand longer closure of the Straits of Hormuz and pressure will grow on the US and Iran to resolve the issue amicably soon.

The larger question looms on the horizon how the world faces the reality of Iran gaining control of the Straits of Hormuz even after the war comes to an end hopefully soon.