US NDS 2026: Strategic Predictability, Tactical Unpredictability

Front Page US NDS 2026

The U.S. National Defence Strategy 2026 outlines strategic priorities of the United States with many of the issues having debated extensively over the past year, may not come as a surprise, yet the NDS is the basis on which the Trump administration is set to employ the miiltary as a part of an extensive domestic and global agenda.

It was unusual for the high-profile United States Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to release the National Defense Strategy [NDS] of the U.S. without much fanfare on a Friday evening, just before the weekend, on January 23.

Following the significant National Security Strategy 2025, the NDS articulates the United States' principal military strategic priorities. While emphasizing the unparalleled scale of its conventional forces, the document also highlights persistent limitations in sustaining protracted conflicts, most notably in Afghanistan and Iraq.

These strategic priorities were well known, and the NDS underlines them as the core agenda of the Trump administration. The agenda is organized around four main priorities:

1. Defend the U.S. Homeland

2. Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Strength, Not Confrontation

3. Increase Burden-Sharing with U.S. Allies and Partners

4. Supercharge the U.S. Defense Industrial Base

The key differences from previous defense strategies, including Trump 1.0, are most likely in points 1 and 3.

Emphasis on defending the Homeland and requiring increased burden sharing by US allies and partners (including India) is another.

Some key facets of each of the four core points are discussed as given below-

1. Defend the U.S. Homeland. By implication, using the U.S. military for homeland defense is the most critical task, usually assigned to police and paramilitary forces in most countries and, in the U.S., to agencies under the Department of Homeland Security.

The defence of the American skies through the Golden Dome is, of course, a military task and has received due mention. The Defence of the Homeland also includes defending US interests in the  Western Hemisphere by “guarantee U.S. military and commercial access to key terrain, especially the Panama Canal, Gulf of America, and Greenland”.

2. Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Strength, Not Confrontation.  Apart from high-level leader-to-leader engagement opening “military-to-military communications with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with a focus on supporting strategic stability with Beijing as well as deconfliction and de-escalation”, and “strong denial defense along the First Island Chain (FIC),” are the core strategies.

3 Increase Burden-Sharing with U.S. Allies and Partners. The focus is on allies and partners allocating 3.5% of GDP to core military spending and 1.5% to security-related spending, for a total of 5%. This mandate applies globally, including to India, and its implementation will become clear in the Indian Government Budget for 2026–27, to be presented in a week on February 1.

4. Supercharge the U.S. Defense Industrial Base.  Here, the objective is both commercial and strategic as the NDS says, “We must return to being the world’s premier arsenal, one that can produce not only for ourselves but also for our allies and partners at scale, rapidly, and at the highest levels of quality”.

Beyond the Homeland and Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific commands attention, with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRIN) clearly defined as the principal adversarial bloc under the current Washington administration.

China is seen as the principal challenge to a favorable balance of military power in the Indo- Pacific.

Russia is “a persistent but manageable threat to NATO's eastern members for the foreseeable future,” given its resolve to wage a protracted war, robust defense industry, and the world's largest nuclear arsenal—“which it continues to modernize and diversify, along with undersea, space, and cyber capabilities that it could use against the U.S. Homeland.” In this context, NATO allies are reassured that the Pentagon [US Department of War] will continue to play a vital role.

Iran and North Korea are additional challenges noted in the NDS, which calls for partner and ally contributions.

Significantly, adversaries' joint threats across multiple vectors are also noted.

Strategy in Action

In the Indo-Pacific, regarding China, the NDS outlines “strong denial defense along the First Island Chain (FIC),” as a core strategy; another is intense engagement of the PLA.

To strengthen the defence industrial base, President Trump prioritizes the Golden Dome for America, drone-specific measures, and modernizing U.S. nuclear forces. These efforts aim to achieve 'peace through strength,' enabling President Trump to negotiate from a position of strength.

A drawdown from Europe and the Korean Peninsula has been signaled, though without specific details.

The NDS states: "South Korea is capable of taking primary responsibility for deterring North Korea with key but more limited U.S. support. South Korea also has the resolve for this, as it faces a direct and clear threat. This shift aligns with updating the U.S. force posture on the Korean Peninsula."

“Moscow cannot bid for European hegemony,” the NDS states. “NATO allies are well positioned to take primary responsibility for Europe’s defense, with essential but more limited U.S. support,” the NDS notes. “This includes leading support for Ukraine. European NATO members must quickly brainstorm next steps.”

Conclusion

The Trump administration cannot be faulted for clearly stating many NDS precepts, now summarised in the Document.

The NDS serves notice to adversaries, allies, and partners alike by clearly centering on maintaining US military primacy globally and demonstrating readiness to employ this power aggressively for Homeland Defense.