Donroe Doctrine: An Opportunity for India

Source White House Pool Photograph from Wikipedia

The US Donroe Doctrine implies a possible contestation with China in the long term in the spheres of economic influence globally, here is how India can exploit this as an opportunity to expand national interests.

The “Donroe,” Doctrine has taken the world by storm as US Special Forces and the Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] took over the Presidential Palace in Caracas, Venezuela on the early morning of January 03 to whisk away the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

The Donroe Doctrine is a name that has been given by the US President Donald Trump a twist on the 19th century Monroe Doctrine, which outlined a distinct sphere of influence for the United States in the Americas.  

However, the Donroe Doctrine which has not  been fully articulated but has received much attention by media and analysts is wide sweeping and calls for “absolute U.S. dominance in the Americas, even over democratically elected governments if they do not align with Washington’s interests”.

As explained by New York Times journalist David Sanger on CNN, “Trump’s corollary basically says that we arrogate the right to intervene in any country whose internal problems pose a threat to us in the region. And that’s a pretty broad mandate.”

Essentially the US is willing to use hard power to promote US interests which include business and economic interests.

Given the long history of American interventions globally, the Venezuelan expedition is unlikely to be a short one for the United States and will result in long term commitment of US military, diplomatic and economic power.

Normally the success of any US military operation in time is inversely proportional to the involvement of the US in the country in which intervention was undertaken – Iraq and Afghanistan being the latest examples.

And Iran is flaunted as the next objective for the US.

Wither Indo Pacific

US involvement in the Americas has raised concerns of limited attention to the Indo Pacific which is seen as a primary sphere of influence for Asian powers as India given China’s rising influence.

Importantly while the Monroe Doctrine sought to check expansion of European powers in Latin America in the 19^th Century, the Donroe Doctrine seeks to limit Chinese influence globally starting with the American backyard so to say.

It is evident that the G 2 [US – China dyad] flagged by the US President prior to his summit with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in December was a smoke screen to lull Beijing into a sense of complacency and seek maximum trade concessions.

That moment is seemingly over.

The Chinese leadership has sensed the same and have come out strongly against US intervention in Venezuela.

"China is deeply shocked by and strongly condemns the unilateral, illegal, and bullying acts by the United States," said Sun Lei, the charge d'affaires of China's Permanent Mission to the United Nations at the emergency meeting of the Security Council following the U.S. assault on Venezuela warning the US of past interventions.

China has two choices – either to make a quiet pull back from the established economic spheres of influence such as in Venezuela or to confront the United States. In both cases this implies a recession in Chinese power.

In either case a US China contestation globally is evident if the Trump administration Donroe Doctrine is to be implemented.

India’s Opportunity

This provides an geopolitical opportunity for India provided New Delhi is willing to play its cards right and does not go into a shell of sorts.

With the UN system in disarray and relevance of UNSC limited, India does not require the shelter of the permanent Veto members of the organisation and can manage the international order reasonably. The days when India was reliant on the Soviet Union for a veto are over, Delhi can manage the challenges if any in the UNSC with other P5 partners excluding China based on the situation.

The diffusion of Chinese power in contesting the US also implies a recession from the Indian Ocean Region and the periphery, China will have to focus far more on the Western Pacific.

Moreover, given the tariff trauma faced by large economies of the World including the European Union and the UK, India has the leverage and thus the pace of bilateral trade agreements has increased. With a possible India EU FTA on the horizon a limited one for that matter by end of the month, the signal will be ominous.

Wither Neighbourhood

In the neighbourhood, Pakistan under Asim Munir has fallen to the transactional policies of President Trump. A lunch in the White House means little for the poor man on the street in Islamabad or the trader in Karachi.

Transactional deals with the US will unravel as there is lack of resilience in the Pakistan systemic progression to achieve vast potential of the state the route for which lies through New Delhi. For Pakistan military this is the death wish and thus it will wallow in the depths of inanity taking the nation in a downward spiral.

And if the US goes for intervention in Iran, Pakistan will be posed with a complex dilemma of balancing national versus partner’s interest.

In Bangladesh, the situation will unravel only after the Bangladesh Elections. The elected government should have a far more long term perspective of relations with India than the Interim one. For Dhaka relations with Delhi are of vital economic interest else it will decelerate into Kissinger's basket case trying to woo far away economic cooperation as Mohammad Yunus has done in the past 15 months of his misrule. The outcome is there for all to see with violence in the country surpassing past records as the Yunus administration has fanned the flames rather than quelling them.

For all her authoritarian and crony corruption, Sheikh Hasina saw economic progress which has seen Bangladesh rise in the hierarchy of nations.

Yunus’s flagging of claims in India’s North East are laughable. The situation is far more different than what was there two decades ago when BNP was in power in Bangladesh, the threat is political and not insurgency.

Given these developments globally and regionally India can effectively mitigate the risks and sustain enhancement of comprehensive national power – economic and military.

The peril here is that we may fall for our own narrative flagging achievements that are unrealistic be it in GDP growth or Atma Nirbharata in Defence.