South Asian Political Flux In 2026

What are prospects of stability in South Asia in 2026? Here is a perspective analysing internal and external factors in the region including Myanmar.

Democracies are oxygen for meeting aspirations of the masses. Elections are the medium through which people exercise their choice. South Asia, including Myanmar, will see three national elections in 2026, with the Myanmar elections spilling over from December this year. Given the circumstances under which the polls are being held preemptively, there are genuine concerns about their smooth conduct. In addition, in India, some states are going to elections, and regional opposition parties currently govern them, thus the possibility of flux is evident.

Myanmar polls may be the easiest to call because they are exclusive and non-participatory. Therefore, the outcome is heavily skewed in favour of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), dominated by retired generals and serving as the electoral proxy of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military). The party is currently led by Khin Yi, a close ally of military chief Min Aung Hlaing, and is central to the regime’s plan to maintain power through “elections”. Yet, given the civil war-like conditions in the country, there are concerns over possible violence even in the constituencies that have been selected due to reasonable control of the military regime. What emerges from these polls in Myanmar will be a choice structured by the military, far from the aspirations of the people.

Neighbouring Bangladesh is likely to see more participatory polls, but excluding the Awami League, a major political party led by the deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is in exile in New Delhi.  The main opposition parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat Islami, are expected to dominate the polls, with the newly formed National Citizens Party providing an alternative to voters. Multiple instances of violence intra and inter-party have so far marred the polls; thus, how the situation manifests in the elections to be held in February next year remains to be seen.

Nepal is facing early polls, following the Gen Z protests in September that led to the dissolution of the House of Representatives and a call for polls on March 05, 2026.  Indeed, the polls will be participatory, with almost 120 parties registered with the Election Commission so far. The objective of the dissolution and elections is primarily to provide an option for the emergence of an alternative formulation to meet the aspirations of the public at large, who are tired of the legacy parties and leaders accused of corruption, elitism, and unwillingness to devolve power to the people. The large number of parties participating with the same leaders once again coming to the fore does not augur well for the future.

On the western part of the Subcontinent, Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to remain in flux. In Afghanistan, the Taliban is facing a challenge to ideology as well as territorial sovereignty from Eastern Neighbour Pakistan, which is irked with the incessant terrorist attacks launched by Tehreek Taliban Pakistan [TTP] allegedly supported by Kabul. Pakistan has undertaken air and drone attacks in response, in blatant disregard of sovereignty. The Durand Line is another contentious issue that has emerged. Internally, for Pakistan, the political challenge has, in fact, accentuated after the political leadership virtually surrendered to demands made by the army chief, first to nominate him as a Field Marshal and now chief of defence forces with a five-year tenure.

Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, the Maldives and India appear to be having a far greater likelihood of sustaining the momentum of stability in 2026, barring a Black Swan event.