Bangladesh Forecast December 2025: Polls Yes, Change Uncertain

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Continued political and governance flux is expected in Bangladesh as the overall socio political structure remains deeply divided and contested with violent change embedded in the society from the base to the apex level.

International Relations. Widespread support to the Interim administration in Bangladesh is anticipated from the international community for holding elections in February. The ban on Awami League and affiliated parties is however likely to be a dampener and will sully the polls record due to exclusion of a Party which continues to have 30 to 35 % support amongst the masses. Despite the UN General Assembly Resolution on Rohingya issue which has turned out to be an annual ritual return of the Rohingya to Myanmar is unlikely. Thus, Bangladesh will have to bear the burden of hosting the large bulge even as there is decline in international financial support. Bangladesh will continue to face challenges of managing migration – illegal and legal due to overall migration environment internally and abroad.

Regional Relations. Under the interim government led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh's foreign policy is expected to continue the shift from the previously close, "India-centric" orientation of the ousted Sheikh Hasina government and toward closer ties with China and Pakistan, raising significant concerns in New Delhi. At the same time, attempts to balance relations with India are also evident with Bangladesh's National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman visiting New Delhi for the Colombo Security Conclave. He flagged misinformation and disinformation an accusation against Indian media for several incidents of communal violence in the country targeting minorities which Dhaka has claimed are false and exaggerated. Post elections in February 2026, if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) or Jamaat comes to power, the likely trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations could be strained, a shift from the strong ties enjoyed under the previous Awami League government. However, reality may deem it necessary for the Party in power to sustain engagement with Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's expression of concern and offer of support for former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's critical health condition could be a positive factor to rebalance relations in the future in case the BNP comes to power.

Political Developments. Political parties are expected to increase their preparations for polls. Ticket distribution process is ongoing and is expected to lead to many confrontations due to multiple aspirants for seats. The precarious health of the BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia is a cause for national concern as well as for the Party which has been depending on her to boost the prospects during elections. Tarique Rahman has been acquitted of charges by the courts, but he is unwilling to return to Bangladesh due to a perceived lack of a "suitable situation" and ongoing concerns about his security and the political climate and is possibly timing the return to gain maximum leverage from the polls. The newbie National Citizen Party (NCP) will contest all 300 constituencies in the upcoming national election with the Shapla Koli (Water Lily Bud) symbol hoping to make an impact. As of now, a prediction on prospects of parties is difficult but BNP and Jamaat could be in the lead to form a government.

Three blocks are expected to contest – the traditional parties the BNP and the Jamaat the latter having an alliance with the conservative Islamist bloc and the new political entities as the NCP. How exclusion of the Awami League from the polls impacts the same is not clear for now. The Referendum to be held along the polls is unlikely to be an indicator of the will of the people at the grassroots as the voters have no scope to vote on the four proposals separately. The Bangladeshi ICT decision to sentence exiled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death is expected to lead to more political instability in the country. Awami League ban is unlikely to go down quietly and protests by supporters and cadres can be anticipated.

Election Security. The political activity in October has been marked with multiple incidents of violence and clashes – intra party and inter party. Thus, election security will remain a major challenge in the coming months despite the Army deployment with magistrate powers.

Defence

Closer Pakistan-Bangladesh defence cooperation is envisaged at least till a new elected government review of the same. Armed forces could be under pressure to manage security in a manner as to reduce the casualties as the military has been blamed in some quarters for the July 2024 unrestricted violence.

Economy

While economy is showing signs of stability, post elections government in Bangladesh is expected to face an immediate challenge in preparing the country for post LDC graduation. Major macroeconomic factors, inflation and financial distress are likely to impact economic growth. Inflation and financial distress continue to pose serious concerns.