India-Bangladesh Relations: Green Shoots or Mirage

After almost 15 months of adversarial relations, some green shoots are emerging in India-Bangladesh ties. It is unclear if this is a positive shift in engagement or only a mirage, given multiple differences exposed after deposition of former Prime Minister and head of the Awami League Sheikh Hasina and her exile in Delhi on August 05 last year, in the wake of the rousing public anger that threatened to storm her official residence. Sentencing of Hasina by the International Courts Tribunal and Bangladesh demand for her extradition has added another layer of complexity in relations under the Interim Administration.

However, off late an attempt to balance relations are evident in Dhaka as well as New Delhi.

The visit of Bangladesh's National Security Adviser, Khalilur Rahman to New Delhi for the Colombo Security Conclave was perhaps the beginning. Rahman flagged misinformation and disinformation, an accusation against Indian media for reporting incidents of communal violence in the country targeting minorities, which Dhaka has claimed are false and exaggerated immediately after the Interim Administration under Professor Mohammad Yunus took over, possibly to underline that the underlying differences were accentuated by the media hype.

As an adjunct, some recent ministerial and official level statements from both sides indicate an outreach emphasising the importance of resolving differences, given the realities of geography, legacy, and the close ties cultivated during the Awami League government in Dhaka. These factors cannot be wished away.  

Here is a look at the statements which seem to indicate an attempt to overcome past rancour-

At the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit [HTLS] held recently in New Delhi, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar responding to a question said, that former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's stay in India is her personal decision influenced by the circumstances that led her to the country. " She came here in a certain circumstance," said, adding "But again, that is something in which she has to make up her mind."

This comes after Bangladesh government has asked India to extradite Hasina under the India Bangladesh Treaty.

"Providing refuge to these individuals, who have been convicted of crimes against humanity, by any other country would be a highly unfriendly act and a disregard for justice," the letter from the foreign ministry of Bangladesh read.

“As far as we are concerned, we wish Bangladesh well. We think as a democratic country, any democratic country likes to see the will of the people ascertained through a democratic process," Jaishankar said at the HTLS. "And I am quite confident that whatever comes out of the democratic process would have a balanced and mature view about the relationship, and hopefully things would improve."

Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain accepting that Bangladesh has formally requested India to return Sheikh Hasina, describing her as a "convicted fugitive sentenced by the highest court of Bangladesh," and is awaiting a response from India but added, "Sensitive matters like this cannot be resolved quickly. We are closely observing what kind of reaction India provides," speaking to journalists at the Rangpur Circuit House recently

India confirmed the request. Shri Randhir Jaiswal, Official Spokesperson, responding to a question by the media in a weekly news briefing, said, "On Bangladesh, to your question about the request. Yes, we have received the request, and it is being examined as part of ongoing judicial and internal legal processes. We remain committed to the best interests of the people of Bangladesh, including peace, democracy, inclusion and stability in that country. We will continue to engage constructively in this regard with all stakeholders".           

In another development, Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma said India seeks a stable, positive, constructive, forward-looking, and mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh, based on equality and mutual respect, with the people of both countries as the primary stakeholders during a celebration marking the 54th anniversary of the Maitri Diwas-2025 at the Indian Cultural Centre in Dhaka today.

His counterpart in India was also positive indicating that Bangladesh is trying to shape a "new canvas" in its relations with India, where both countries share a common future. High Commissioner Riaz Hamidullah said, "It is easier said than done, but it is possible. We have divergent views and sensitive issues, but that is the nature of our relationship.

“Focusing on only one aspect would not do justice," at an interactive session organised by the Merchants' Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Kolkata.

"I qualify this as mutual interdependence," he said. Dhaka is focusing more on cultural diplomacy, tourism facilitation, and broader economic integration.

In fact, India Navy Chief Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi on November 30 in an interaction said he continues to view Bangladesh as a friend and expects the current turbulence in the neighbouring country to turn around. He would "still not describe Bangladesh as anything other than a friend", adding that the present phase appeared "temporary and transitory".

"We will have to wait. Elections in Bangladesh are still pending, so it is best to hold our comments," he said. He noted that defence engagement between the two countries continues. "We are training their personnel here. I met a Bangladeshi cadet who passed out of the NDA this morning. After taking charge, my first overseas visit was meant to be Bangladesh. There was another option of a more high-profile capital, but I insisted on going to Bangladesh first. 

Despite these positive developments, the likely trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations post elections is uncertain and challenging, a shift from the "golden chapter" enjoyed under former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Relations have cooled, marked by diplomatic friction, trade disruptions, and Bangladesh's pivot toward China and Pakistan.

The future path will largely depend on the outcome of the general elections expected in early 2026. Post elections in February 2026, if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) or Jamaat comes to power, India-Bangladesh relations could be strained, a shift from the strong ties enjoyed under the previous Awami League government. However, reality may deem it necessary for the party in power to sustain engagement with Delhi.

Despite current tensions, both countries share deep historical, cultural, and geographical ties that necessitate cooperation. Areas like energy cooperation may continue to serve as functional, mutually beneficial pathways.

India too will have to accept the reality that the Awami League, despite having its support base intact, will not be able to return to the mainstream in the near term, as it is banned at

least in the forthcoming polls; thus, working with alternative players is inevitable.

New Delhi is employing a cautious approach, focusing on diplomatic engagement, continuing humanitarian and development support, and leveraging sub-national diplomacy with states like West Bengal and Tripura to maintain people-to-people connections and functional links. Bangladesh's new multipolar foreign policy means India will need to adapt its strategies to a more assertive and diversified Dhaka, rather than relying on a single political party for an "ally".