Polls Unlikely to End Uncertainty in Bangladesh

Representative Image Students Agitation in Bangladesh

Ongoing pre-election political ferment dictates that polls planned in February may not end the uncertainties in Bangladesh. Here is a multi-vector Bangladesh Forecast for September 2025

International Relations Widespread support is anticipated to Bangladesh for holding the polls now scheduled for February. United States and the European Union [EU] amongst others may send monitoring teams, the EU is likely to provide funding for holding free and fair polls. China and others are supportive of the polls without expressing overt interest in the same. Much will depend on free and fair polls for structuring relations particularly with the EU where political configuration will not be of any interest, but a peaceful election will be. Mobilizing support for the Rohingya refugees at the UN in September will remain a priority however with multiple regions seeking economic and humanitarian assistance, Bangladesh will remain challenged for receipt of international assistance for management of the over one million Rohingyas.

Regional Relations There is a degree of improvement evident in relations with India with resumption of rice exports and tapering off the issue of push ins which have been streamlined with greater coordination, the high-level meeting between the border chief of the two countries may set the stage for smoother border and refugee management. On the other hand, relations with Pakistan have also shown an uptick but only nominally as the 1971 atrocities are rankling Bangladesh which was clearly brought out to the visiting Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Bangladesh. Regional countries are likely to review the relations only after a new government takes office in February March 2026.The Rohingya resettlement will continue to create challenges for the Bangladesh government as no progress is anticipated with Myanmar. Meanwhile, cross border activities of the Arakan Army in the Bay of Bengal including abductions will remain a challenge.

Political Developments. The Election Commission Code of Conduct 2025 for political parties and candidates ahead of the 13th National Parliamentary Election, scheduled to be held before Ramadan in February next year sets the stage for holding of polls in the country after major disruption caused by the August 5, 2024 of deposition of the Awami League. Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus at separate meetings with three political parties firmly reiterated that the national elections will be held within the first half of February in 2026 in a free, fair manner. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami and National Citizen Party (NCP) are seen as the main political contestants in the polls and the fourth will be smaller parties in a bloc including the Jatiya party, the Islamist parties and the left block. Proportional representation (PR) system may emerge as a controversial issue as Jamaat-e-Islami is calling for the same claiming that there is widespread support for the proposal whereas the BNP is not in favour. A formal alliance between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the newly emergent Nationalist Consensus Party (NCP) remains uncertain but not implausible. The BNP and Jamaat are likely to be the main antagonists.

Parties have commenced preparations for polls, with the largest BNP strategizing to contest the upcoming 13th national parliamentary election alongside like-minded parties. Party’s Acting Chairman, Tarique Rahman’s participation may remain a question mark though he is cleared by the Supreme Court of sentencing for masterminding the grenade attack that targeted then-opposition leader Sheikh Hasina and killed 24 people. He may hedge and return only after BNP gains a majority but that may weaken the party due to lack of physical presence of Tarique during the polls. Meanwhile, Awami League loyalists are also likely to make some impact on the polls.

Jamaat E Islami got a boost in the Dhaka University Polls as a panel supported by it swept the elections, while BNP is marginalised thus creating more uncertainities for a Party that planned to go alone seeking an overwhelming mandate.

Internal Security. Even as the Interim administration in Bangladesh has announced plans for elections, the volatile law and order situation is of significant concern. Widespread protests by civil servants, teachers, and political activists have disrupted life in major cities like Dhaka, fueling public anxiety and political uncertainty. Moreover, intra and inter party violence is also assuming major challenge with the Army deployed now for almost a year having powers of the civil administration for law-and-order control.

Defence. Expanding defence relations with the United States and China can be anticipated. With the Army as well as possibly other services likely to be involved in supporting the election professional activities may take a backseat.

Economy. Having won considerable concessions from the United States on tariffs, Bangladesh economy will now be on stream to sustain growth as green shoots of recovery from the disruptions of the July 2024 revolution are in the offing. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has praised the leadership of Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus for Bangladesh’s remarkable economic transformation since he assumed office particularly government’s decision to introduce a market-based exchange rate, stabilization of the foreign exchange market and recovery of foreign reserves.