US and Iran 14 Point MOU Probability and Impact Analysis

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran Memorandum of Understanding [MOU] to end the US/Israel War and Iran and committment to resolution of outstanding issues including nuclear, sanctions and so on has been submitted to the US Congress by the US Government on June 18. The MOU comprises 14 points.

Some of these such as removal of blockade in the Straits of Hormuz have been implemented denoting a positive start while others will remain contentious particularly permanent termination of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon as Israel is not a party to the MOU.

Here is an assessment of the Probability of Sustenance and Confirmation of each of the term including the Impact with comments tabulated as below [Criticalities are marked in Red].

Point	Probability of Sustenance/ Confirmation	Impact	Remarks
1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.	Low	High	Israel is not a party to the MOU and thus is not committed to accept termination of operations in Lebanon despite United States Presidential virtual directive to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.	High	High	While probability remains high any perceived violation by Iran may lead to delay in the final negotiations
3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.	Low	Low	The 60-day period for the final deal is a short window, this is likely to be extended with mutual consent hence the impact is seen as Low
4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.	High	High	Already implemented
5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.	Low	High	The clause of Iran creating an administration for an authority for management of the Straits of Hormuz is a major concern as it portends charging of fees for the purpose.
6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.	Medium	High	The window for working of all agreements for evolution of plan for funding of Iran’s reconstruction and so on is short.
7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.	Medium	High	Multiple agencies will be involve in removal of sanctions thus delay is anticipated
8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.	High	High	Nuclear being a core issue for the United States, meanwhile Iran has committed to not developing a nuclear weapon in the past. While there could be some resistance from the Iranian hardliners after the Supreme Authority Mojtaba Khamanei has backed the deal openly, it is envisaged the discordant voices will be controlled.
9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.	High	High
10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.	High	High	Already implemented
11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.	High	Medium	Preliminary measures for release of frozen funds already undertaken
12 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.	High	High	Establishment of effective mechanism for finalization of the accord will be one of the key factors in conclusion of final accord
13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.	Medium	High	Given multiplicity of measures required to be undertaken under various paragraphs such as [1] termination of ope [2] ending naval blockade [3] safe commercial passage [4] Release of frozen funds [5] Removal of sanctions some delay in implementation can be anticipated
14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.