Three Elections in India's Neighbourhood, Uncertain Outcomes

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Elections without transformation projected for Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal with stability concerns continuing.

Stability within the countries and relations with Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal are of vital interest for India. The three countries are heading for polls with hopes of a new dawn, what are the predictions for stability ahead, here is a view.

Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal will be holding parliamentary polls in December 2025 [partial], February and March 2026 respectively.

The three neighbours of India have gone through a cataclysmic change led by violent movement in the case of Bangladesh [August 2024] and Nepal [September 2025] and a military coup in Myanmar [February 2021].

The degree of political disruption and security challenges have been varied ranging from collapse of law and order [Bangladesh and Nepal] to sparking a resistance movement [Myanmar].

While Bangladesh and Nepal have a tradition of electoral democracy though criticised by many, Myanmar was emerging into one after two series of polls seen as relatively free and fair in 2015 and 2020.

The disruptions led by a marginalized civil society in Dhaka and Kathmandu with elite capture and monopolization of government has set the stage for fresh polls. How free and fair these would be remains to be seen.

On the other hand in Myanmar, the Tatmadaw or the armed forces were feeling marginalized from power and thus usurped state authority in a move that is a replication of many military take over in the past.

Will the elections due in these three countries be free and fair and lead to a change, here is an assessment of key drivers-

Driver	Myanmar	Bangladesh	Nepal
Election Laws & Regulations	Structured by the military for exclusion of opposing forces	Degree of uncertainty prevails over implementation of the July Charter, planned referendum. Proportional representation (PR)	Positive
Election Commission	Union Election Commission controlled by the Tatmadaw	Election Commission credentials to be tested. 42,761 voting centres, 2,44,739 voting booths planned	Reasonably free and fair
Planning and Preparations for Elections	Ongoing	Ongoing	Just commenced
Multi Party Polls	Regulated participation with popular parties as the National League for Democracy [NLD] led by Aung Suu Kyi out of reckoning.	Positive but Awami League Banned	Positive
Political parties Approach	Parties selected by the miliary to participate, exclusionary	All parties participating less Awami League [Banned]	Participation by all parties confirmed less CPN UML – uncertain.
Unity of political approach	Directed by the military	Disputed and thus Negative	Under discussion largely negative
Factionalism within parties	Rampant but Controlled by military	Divide in Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP], National Citizens Party [NCP] Islamist and Left alliance. Jamaat e Islami showing unity	Horizontal cleavage in parties with demand for younger leadership to lead. Old versus the new divide to continue.
New political elements	Nil	NCP	Gen Z movement as a political block. Monarchists, victims of past violence and corruption.
Public attitude to elections	Resistance. Military enforcing participation through enactment of Election Protection Law which imposes harsh penalties for any criticism or complaints, with sentences ranging from three years in prison to the death penalty	Willingness to participate, however local and factional interests likely to lead to clashes.	Sceptical due to recent transformation, security and resistance by political elements, newbie elements in the Gen Z
Anticipated Polls Outcome	Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) military supported party in lead support of Ma Ba Tha [Association for the Protection of Race and Religion], a Buddhist ultranationalist group leading	Cannot be determined	Cannot be determined
Security and Law and order	Challenged due to resistance by armed elements led by  National Unity Government and Ethnic Armed Organisations despite polls being held in phases based on control of constituencies by the military	High concerns due to culture of political violence, factional fighting within parties and disruptive elements. 67% of polling stations declared ‘risky’ by Election Commission during security review. 92,500 members of the army and navy to be deployed.	High concerns due to prison escapees and weapons at large during September violence. Approximately 1,200 weapons 5,000 escaped prisoners
International Support	Negative by the West, support from Russia and its allies	Positive	Positive
Regional Support	Mixed – China, India Support polls, ASEAN bans polls	Positive	Positive
Holding of Polls – Free and Fair	Negative	Likely	Highly Likely
Post Polls prognostication	Military dominated USDP could form government, however likely to lead to attenuation of violence.	Cannot be predicted for now [12 Nov]	Cannot be predicted for now [12 Nov]
Overall political & Security impact	Contested and highly resisted first phase of polls likely with outcomes predetermined, military will declare success and claim restoration of democracy. Violence will continue across the country with limited assurance of holding of next phase of the polls.	There is an opportunity for fundamental change in Bangladesh, however continued political violence and elitocracy may deprive the public real change. Major transformation in political spectrum is not anticipated with weak, institutions,  factionalism and political culture of violence	Overall political transformation will be evident if political parties are willing to transfer power to younger leadership. A more of the same scenario may only lead to another wave of resistance by the Gen Z and other politically marginalised elements.
Related Research	Myanmar Forecast December 2025 https://www.security-risks.com/post/myanmar-forecast-december-onward-to-contested-polls	Bangladesh Forecast December 2026 https://www.security-risks.com/post/bangladesh-forecast-december-2025-onward-to-polls-with-contestations	Nepal Forecast December 2025 https://www.security-risks.com/post/nepal-forecast-december-2025-interim-government-challenges