Myanmar Forecast December : Onward to contested Polls

The Tatmadaw adorning the mantle of State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) and National Security and Peace Commission (NSPC) regulated polls for limited number of constituencies are likely to go ahead on December 28, to be contested violently in some areas. Regardless of the outcome success of the polls wtih be declared by the SSPC and return to partial democracy but rejected by the international and regional stakeholders less supporters of the military regime.

International Relations External observers are refusing to monitor Myanmar’s 2025 elections because the polls are widely seen as illegitimate, exclusionary, and conducted under repressive conditions that violate democratic norms. European Union and United Nations are expected to declare the elections as fraudulent process, however with support from Russia and China, the polls will be declared a success by the miliary led administration.

Regional Relations China’s hedging policy in Myanmar—supporting both the military junta and the National Unity Government (NUG)—may offer short-term strategic flexibility, but risks long-term instability and reputational costs. China has so far only succeeded in pressuring the MNDAA to halt offensives against the regime rather than surrender any more substantial territory. Member states may send monitors bilaterally, but not under ASEAN’s banner as the group under Malaysia has taken a hard line approach towards the polls.

Political Developments.  Union Election Commission (UEC), operating under the generals is determined to go through the first phase of voting in 102 of the country’s 330 townships on Dec. 28, with a second round scheduled for Jan. 11 in another 100 townships. Fifty‑six townships will be excluded altogether. The level of polling and other factors are not likely to influence the UEC in declaring the polls a success.             A unified revolutionary military alliance between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) is expected to take shape soon as an alternative to the military, but for this unity remains elusive.

Internal Security &  Defence. Intense fighting is expected to continue across the contested zones on the periphery of the Irrawaddy Valley or the Bamar majority areas with some within this zone also contested. The EAOs and the PDFs could be gearing up for disrupting the polls preventing these being held in many of the areas which are under nominal military control.  A series of air raids will mark the military’s counter attacks regardless of civilian casualties. Neutralisation of the scam centres will be nominal as these will relocate in other areas in the vicinity.

Lt Gen Kyaw Swar Lin is seen as favorite, with Ko Ko Oo as second-in-command as Min Aung Hlaing due for retirement as head of the Tatmadaw and likely to take over as the President post the polls.

Economy The Asian Development Bank September 2025 outlook on Myanmar Myanmar’s 2025 growth forecast has been cut sharply to –3.0% from 1.1% in April, as the 7.7-magnitude earthquake in March further deepened macroeconomic instability. Myanmar’s inflation outlook is raised to 30.0% in 2025 and 23.0% in 2026, the highest in the region, as the disruptions from the 28 March earthquake are expected to further intensify inflationary pressures. Myanmar also encountered significant export difficulties due to external shocks and domestic constraints.