Updated: Oct 20, 2022
In the strategic deterrence domain, timing is an important facet. Thus a reviewed of timing of the SLBM test assumes importance. The K 15 test is in line with a number of missile tests planned by India during the period from October 14 to October 23.
Damien Symon at his twitter handle @detresfa_ states, “#AreaWarning #India issues notifications for no fly zones over the Bay of Bengal region indicative of upcoming missile tests. Launch Window | 19-20 & 21-23 October 2022.”
The range arc shown is of 300 Km and 1680 Km indicating short and medium range ballistic and cruise missiles being tested.
There are several events that are occurring in tandem with these tests in the geopolitical and the national sphere.
Short range missile tests are also expected from 31 October to 05 November with a range of 140 - 300 kms
20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is being held in Beijing today [16th October] where President Xi Jinping is expected to be awarded an unprecedented third term. This comes even as the India China standoff at the Line of Actual Control is continuing with at least two friction points on the radar.
Internally the birth anniversary of India’s “Missile Man,” and former President Abdul Kalam also fell on October 14th while the Def Expo 2022 starts in Gujarat on October 18th and extends to 21st. Inauguration by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is slated for October 19th.
With large number of defence ministers, senior military commanders and officials due to attend th event, signaling nuclear and missile capabilities will be a marker
To the Prime Minister in his home state Gujarat, demonstration of the governments’ hard security approach will come in handy with elections slated in the State during the winters.
While not timed as such but coincidentally, US President Joe Biden shamed Pakistan a day after the K 15 test calling it a dangerous nuclear capable country. Analysts will put in place a comparison with India no doubt.