Punitive Deterrence has Limitations, Comprehensive Approach to Counter Pak Terror Essential

A sustained follow up of Operation Sindoor – diplomatic, political, economic, energy and so on is essential to isolate Pakistan to force it on its knees and switch of the terror tap altogether occasional punitive strikes have failed to disrupt the cycle of terror launched from Rawalpindi.

On 07 May, in a statement Shri Vikram Misri, India’s Foreign Secretary outlined the circumstances that led to the punitive strikes by the Indian Armed Forces in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir – Operation Sindoor.

The overall objective was stated as not only to avenge Pahalgam terrorist attack which resulted in the death of 26 individuals selectively segregated by the terrorists but also, “Pakistan's long track record of perpetrating cross-border terror in India, which is well documented, and beyond question. Pakistan also has a well-deserved reputation as a haven for terrorists from around the world, with internationally proscribed terrorists enjoying impunity there”.

The Foreign Secretary also stated that India exercised right to respond and pre-empt as well as deter more such cross-border attacks. “These actions were measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible. They focused on dismantling the terrorist infrastructure and disabling terrorists likely to be sent across to India,” he added. The UN Security Council press statement of 25th April 2-25 was also highlighted which he quoted, "The need to hold perpetrators, organisers, financiers and sponsors of this reprehensible act of terrorism accountable and bring them to justice”.

Indian Army’s Colonel Sofia Qureshi and Indian Air Force Wing Commander Vyomika Singh thereafter outlined the details of the operations by the Indian side in Hindi and English respectively.

Wing Cdr Vyomika Singh who delivered her statement in English linked Indian Armed Forces actions not just to Pahalgam but Pak past record on terrorism. “Over the last three decades, Pakistan has systematically built terror infrastructure. It is a complex web of recruitment and indoctrination centres, training areas for initial and refresh of courses and launch pads for handlers”. “These camps are located both in Pakistan as well as Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK) areas,” she added.

She highlighted that, “The strike on the terror camps were undertaken through precision capability…. Niche technology weapons with careful selection of warheads was ensured, so that there will be no collateral damage. The point of impact at each of the target was a specific building or a group of buildings. All the targets were neutralized with clinical efficiency, and the results reiterate the professionalism of the Indian Armed Forces in the planning and execution of their operations. No military establishments were targeted”.

The briefing highlighted that 9 terrorist camps/bases were targeted across a wide span of the Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir [POK]. Initial reports by the Indian side indicated that 70 terrorists and known supporters were killed in these attacks. Pakistan on the other hand has claimed that over 30 civilians including women and children have been killed.

Operation Sindoor were the most extensive and lethal cross border punitive strikes launched so far to directly target Pakistan’s terrorist leadership and infrastructure. The objective was clearly long term – deter Pakistan from sustaining the strategy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts.

Experience of Punitive Deterrence

Experience shows that while there is a realisation in Pakistan’s political leadership of terror as a failed strategy vis a vis India, “born again,” anti India, “diehards,” military and ISI Chiefs rake up the tool as much for their own internal survival as rivalry with India.

In 2001, after the attack on the Indian parliament -India launched Operation Parakram in January 2002 a full scale deployment of forces on the Line of Control/International Border with a corresponding response from Pakistan. Both sides stayed on the front planting mines and engaging in artillery  duels for 10 months.

Both sides declared a cease fire in November 2003 with Pakistan’s then Army Chief who also headed the government as well General Pervez Musharraf agreeing to wind up the terrorist infrastructure in the country.

Musharraf was eased out of power in 2007 and General Pervez Ashraf Kiyani who took over as Army Chief gave the green light for Mumbai 26/11 terrorist attack launched by the Lashkar E Taiyyaba on 26 November 2008.

After much political and diplomatic attempts at pacification both countries resumed normalcy.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] came to power in 2014 the initial reach out to Pakistan was scuttled by launch of a terrorist attack on the Indian air force base of Pathankot in 2016.

In good faith India called for a joint investigation which proceeded ahead till stymied by the Pakistan Army and the ISI. Given this experience India has firmly resisted this option offered by Pakistan and sponsored by some of its supporters after the Pahalgam attack given the lack of sincerity with which Islamabad is expected to engaged in such a venture.

A terrorist attack followed soon after in 2016 at Uri a forward location of the Indian Army in the Kashmir Valley on the Line of Control on 18 September 2016. On 29 September, teams of Indian Special Forces crossed the Line of Control into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and attacked targets in depth exfiltrating successfully after the mission causing heavy losses to Pak security forces. Pakistan’s response was denial –the attacks ever happened.

Moving on to Pulwama in 2019. On 14 February 2019, a vehicle-borne suicide bomber attacked a Central Reserve Police Force [CRPF] convoy killing 40 policemen.  While Pakistan claimed the same as a false flag operation, the terrorist group Jaish e Mohammad claimed the attack placing Islamabad on the terror spot.

On 26 February 2019 India launched a special mission raid by Mirage 2000 fighter jets on Balakot, Pakistan, against training camp of the terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which had claimed the attack in Pulwama.

The outcome was a retributive response by Pakistan in which in a dogfight one Indian aircraft MiG 21 was shot down in Pak airspace the pilot was held captive but released within days after India warned of the consequences.

The events outlined in the first two and a half decades of this century indicates that the cycle of terrorist attacks sponsored by Pakistan appears to recur despite attempts at political and diplomatic understanding and military targeting.

Operation Sindoor is different from the Balakot strike wherein not one but 9 terrorist linked locations were targeted hitting three main terrorist groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir – Jaish e Mohammad, Lashkar e Taiyyaba and Hizbul Mujahideen.

While each time punitive deterrence has failed to deter Pakistan from giving up the strategy of terror ostensibly to support the movement of self-determination which has lost its sting as is evident with spontaneous condemnation of the Pahalgam terrorist attack by masses in the Kashmir Valley on 23 April.

Will Op Sindoor in 2025 be any different.

Much will depend on not just commitment by Pakistan – though there are no indications of the same so far – but actions taken to contain terror groups supported by it and dismantle their organisations and leadership network. 

This indeed is a tall order. While then army chief General Pervez Musharraf attempted the same, he was targeted by a Jaish e Mohammad terrorist squad in December 2017.

The current Army Chief General Asim Munir neither has the vision nor control over the military and ISI hierarchy to crack down on support to terrorist groups ranged against India which are a part of the overall Islamic extremist religious network in that country.

What then should be done?

A sustained follow up of Operation Sindoor – diplomatic, political, economic, energy and so on is essential to isolate Pakistan to force it on its knees and switch of the terror tap altogether.

Punitive deterrence will have to be followed by strategic isolation to force Pakistan to review terror as a tool against India.

Simultaneously defensive deterrence by adopting a counter infiltration and counter terror posture to discourage and prevent Pakistani terror groups a virtual free run to target innocents as was.

Removal of the residue of angst in Jammu and Kashmir to dry up support for Pakistan would need political candidness in accepting realities on the ground rather than a collective retribution.

Forcing Pakistan to give up terrorism as a strategy is thus a complex proposition adopted with a long term comprehensive approach which needs consideration to cement gains of strong signaling from Operation Sindoor to India’s Western neighbour and its people.