Statement of Intent by the Prime Minister post Pahalgam Terrorist Attack

An analysis of statement of intent of the Prime Minister post Pahalgam terrorist attack indicates a determination to seek retributive justice for the victims. How could this be achieved with management of escalation needs consideration.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that the attackers will face the harshest response, emphasizing that India’s unity is its greatest strength in the fight against terrorism. “I once again assure the affected families that they will get justice, and justice will be done. The perpetrators and conspirators of this attack will be served with the harshest response,” 121st Episode of ‘Mann ki Baat’ on  27.04.2025.

Earlier speaking at the National Panchayati Raj Day program and launch of development works in Madhubani, Bihar, the Prime Minister had said, “I want to say in very clear words, those terrorists who have carried out this attack and those who conspired for this attack will get a punishment bigger than they could have ever imagined. Now the time has come to destroy the remaining ground of the terrorists. The will power of 140 crore Indians will now break the back of the masters of terror”.

“Today, from the soil of Bihar, I say to the whole world: India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist, and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the earth. India’s spirit will never be broken by terrorism. Terrorism will not go unpunished. Every effort will be made to ensure that justice is done” PM Modi added.

Raksha Mantri [Defence Minister] Shri Rajnath Singh had separately reaffirmed that,  “Not just those who perpetrated the attack, but even those who conspired from behind the scenes to commit such nefarious acts on the Indian soil will soon get an appropriate response”. He was delivering  a memorial lecture on the Marshal of the Indian Air Force (IAF) Arjan Singh in New Delhi on April 23, 2025, just a day after the attack.

Analysis of Statement of Intent

The statement of the Indian leadership clearly indicates an intent to seek retributive justice for the victims of the terrorist attack which includes the perpetrator and conspirators as well as those who organised terrorism in India and Kashmir are expected to be targeted. The punishment is expected to be the harshest and pursuit will be to their lairs in all parts of the World.

In the initial stage it is anticipated that a direct kinetic assault on the terrorist groups and infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir [POK] as well as Pakistan is undertaken, by ground or air and missile attacks. Possibility of drone use is also likely.  The punishment is expected to be even more intense than the surgical strike in 2016 and 2019.

At the same time, timing assumes importance given that Pakistan would have also read the PM’s statement and is thus warned. In fact, Pakistan’s Defence Minister even spoke of the possibility of Indian transgressions and being prepared for the same.

Management of escalation assumes importance, for as the 2019 strike on Balakot shows, there would be a backlash from Pakistan the form and manner of which is unknown. Carrying out full preparations towards the same assumes importance including the possibility of a limited “hot war”.  Nuclear rhetoric is likely however any escalation beyond the conventional is not expected for now.

Thus, in attaining retributive justice through cross border operations the following guidelines may be in order –

• Prepare the operational environment including own defences within the constraints of security.

• Based on real time intelligence.

• 100 % assurance of success.

• Leave no scope for deniability by Pakistan as it did in 2016.

• Measures to prevent, deter and contest a backlash when it comes should be in place.

• Achieve a lasting impact compelling Pakistan to cease cross border terrorism at least temporarily.

  
  

Operations in Jammu and Kashmir

Operations in Kashmir have already achieved results in targeting several terrorists and underground workers who are suspected to be involved in supporting the Pahalgam perpetrators. However, so far [29 April] the terrorist group that carried out the attack has not been successfully intercepted. Interception of the same will be a marked success.

The wider aim also is to destroy ‘the remaining ground for terror’. This would have to be comprehensive campaign within Jammu and Kashmir mostly non kinetic in nature which can overcome the angst in a small section of the population. Yet Pahalgam and the many incidents in the Jammu region are evidence that for conduct of terrorist acts harming civilians even limited support by a small group of locals is sufficient.

Towards this end overcoming the sense of grievance over removal of special status is important. One option is restoration of status of state, though this is not an immediate demand by the Chief Minister Mr Omar Abdullah very wisely.

However, this will partially assuage the sense of deprivation of the locals. A related facet is the development of human intelligence which was lacking as is evident as security forces continued to rely on communication sources which proved grossly inadequate. For local intelligence to develop there is a necessity for contact with the people on the ground which is best achieved through the political representatives and not through the police and security forces grid.

The statements by the Indian leadership could also be a deception to cover large mobilization activation of the front lines as done during Operation Parakram, but for now it is a cross border surgical strike which is now also a part of the popular culture.

Overall  Review of Threat Assessment

An overall review of the threat assessment to the country is essential to include intent, capabilities of the adversaries – China and Pakistan. The strategic environment and the opportunities would also need to be assessed.

A spot survey of these factors would reveal that India will have to sustain high level of operational readiness across the China and Pakistan border and the internal security particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. The armed forces will have to focus on their primary tasks that is the defend of national territorial sovereignty and cannot fritter away their attention on tasks which can be carried out more effectively by the civil government including for instance Viksit Bharat 2047. The way the military should support the same is by providing an impenetrable security umbrella.

The military threat is kinetic and thus needs to be physical combat oriented, while cyber, information and so on are addendums for efficiency to sustain the sharp edge of the sword just as technology.

Technology does not win wars, well trained and operationally soldiers do.

In the larger context modernization to including jointness, integration and graduation to a 4.5 generation force needs to be sustained however ensuring that the focus on the primary contemporary task of operational readiness in the face of adversaries ever willing to exploit opportunities should be ensured.