Punitive Response, Compellence and Escalation India’s Perpetual Dilemma

Baisaran Plataeu Courtesy Google Map

India’s national security leadership is at the familiar crossroads of a punitive response to a Pakistan sponsored terrorist attack to compel Islamabad or Rawalpindi to be more specific from using the tool of terror as a strategy of periodic disruption while at the same time manage escalation.

This is also known as the stability – instability paradox between the two nuclear weapons armed states where strategic deterrence can create stability but increases the risks of conflict at the sub conventional level by Pakistan seeking the shelter of the umbrella of atomic weapons.

Pakistan’s strategic logic is clear. Manifestation of the long-term adversarial relations with India is well nigh unfeasible at the high and medium level of war due to Indian superiority in conventional weapons despite the support of China to it and the unacceptability of a nuclear exchange.

For the Establishment – the military and the intelligence community of the country represented by the Army and the Inter Services Intelligence [ISI] to stay relevant exploitation of terror is seen potent given that deterring a terrorist attack that can be launched across the vast span of vulnerabilities in the country particularly in Jammu and Kashmir is extremely difficult.

Thus, repeatedly Pakistan has been able to exploit chinks in the armour so to say to name a few examples of the past Parliament in 2001, Mumbai 26/11, Pathankot and Uri in 2016, Pulwama in 2019 and now Pahalgam or Baisaran in 2025 causing heavy loss of human lives many of them civilians impacting national harmony and to an extent morale.

There are a host of responses that have been attempted by India from the conventional post Parliament in 2001, politico diplomatic as post Mumbai to joint investigation of Pathankot and punitive strikes in 2016 and 2019. The latter two called as surgical strikes have now become a part of the popular culture in India, thus possibly the national mood is that of a repeat post Baisaran.

Indeed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with the Defence and the Home Ministers have from time to time assured the nation that India will seek punitive justice for the victims of the violence as well as the nation at large by targeting not just the perpetrators but also the support network, planners and conspirators

Security operations are already ongoing in Kashmir to track down the four terrorists – three Pak citizens and one from Kashmir who are said to have been behind the Baisaran terrorist attack. Success may come about sooner rather than later.

The challenge however is to target the support network, conspirators and planners all of whom are in Pakistan.

To target these there are several military options, but much will depend on hard and real time intelligence and the ability to beat the hardened layer of protection that is invariably shielding the top terrorist leadership based in Pakistan.

At the same time the punishment needs to be so severe that Pakistan is compelled to give up the terrorist option altogether. This is indeed a very major challenge. In the past, this has been successful but only temporarily.

At the same time management of escalation assumes importance given the nuclear dimension with Pakistan’s undeclared First Use policy which Pakistan does not hesitate to flag from time to time reminding the world of what it calls – Full Spectrum Deterrence. This is a warning that response will come at a very low level of escalation.

Thus, it is not surprising that a host of world leaders ranging from the UN Secretary General to the United States Vice President and foreign ministers going down to Iran have sought to limit escalation.

India’s national leadership must thus be mindful of a nuclear response and the international obligations while at the same time seek punitive justice.

In some ways the declared intent by the Indian leadership of restricting the targets to terrorism – perpetrators, sponsors and planners et al denotes an inherent statement of restricting escalation. Global leadership will not object to such a targeting.

The Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi has declared on more than one occasion that, ““I once again assure the affected families that they will get justice, and justice will be done. The perpetrators and conspirators of this attack will be served with the harshest response,” 121st Episode of ‘Mann ki Baat’ on  27.04.2025.

However, Pakistan has not constrained to a limited response with Army Chief General Asim Munir having declared "Let there be no ambiguity: any military misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute, and notch-up response," he said while addressing the troops during his visit to the Tilla Field Firing Ranges (TFFR) on May 01 where he witnessed Exercise Hammer Strike - a high-intensity, field training exercise conducted by Pakistan Army's Mangla Strike Corps.  

At this point of time surprise which is a prime element of success for a military strike is not there with India as Pak is warned and has already activated the air defence grid. Moreover the operation will have a degree of 100 percent success rate unlike in the past such as the Pulwama air strike where India lost a helicopter in fratricide and a MiG 21 was shot down in Pakistan.

Thus, the dilemma is complex to manage what could be the strategic contradictions – of punitive response, compellence and escalation. How it is resolved remains to be seen?