A comprehensive forecast of political, international and regional relations, defence and security and economy of Myanmar.
Political Developments
Forecast
The federal and the provincial governments are expected to settle down to governance issues where major challenges are being faced on multiple fronts which was evident with the spate of terrorist attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [KP] and in Balochistan. Governance will remain a challenge for the new coalition given the multitude crisis faced but appears to be the best of the worse options in terms of the coalition for Pakistan. Despite different parties in power in KP [PTI] and Islamabad PMLN] it is anticipated that coordination on the counter terror front is likely with pragmatic approach being adopted by both sides. While there is no immediate danger to the coalition as the honeymoon period is still on, constant spiting on the streets by the PTI workers is expected to continue. Outcome of the bypolls may have a marginal impact. Meanwhile turmoil in the higher judiciary is expected to take some time to cool off. Imran Khan will continue to face judicial challenges in multiple sentences awarded along with his wife Bushra Bibi. The credibility of the government being questioned, challenges would be evident internally as well as externally and much will depend on the economic performance.
International Relations
Forecast
Given the current dynamics of the situation geopolitically as there is a nascent threat of resurgence of global terrorism after the Moscow terrorist attack, Pakistan may be looked at as a partner by the West including the United States, thus the pressure for investigations on the elections is likely to come down. Acceptance of the Shahbaz Sharif government by the US President writing to him is another pointer to support to the newly formed Pakistan government. However, some Democrat Congressmen in the United States may seek the Biden administration to impose restrictions on Pakistan the form of which is not clear so far. Pakistan will hope for US assistance in clearing the next tranche from the IMF. Leaning on the Gulf countries particularly Saudi Arabia for boosting of reserves is anticipated.
Regional Relations
Forecast
Despite the buzz the possibility of improvement of relations between India and Pakistan remains low particularly till a new government takes office in Delhi which will be around June. Pakistan China and Pakistan Afghanistan relations are expected to be tense due to the same factor terrorism. China has taken askance to repeated terrorist attacks resulting in loss of citizens and will continue to demand stringent action including possible deployment of Chinese security personnel for guarding the citizens.
Internal Security
Forecast
Continued challenges on the terrorism front are anticipated due to lack of attempts by the Taliban in Afghanistan to curb the sanctuaries in the country as well as a viable strategy for countering terrorism by the security establishment. A top US General has said the Afghan Taliban government has shown little interest in acting against the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and is unlikely to change that approach in the latest assessment shared with the US Senate Arms Services Committee which supports this premise. Absence of a clearly laid down counter terrorism strategy by the government as well as the Pakistan army implies that reliance on tactical operations is not likely to reduce terrorist attacks. A nexus of ethnic separatists and religious extremists will add to the challenges ahead.
Defence
Forecast
Army chief General Asim Munirseems to be gaining control of the hierarchy by placing commanders in key positions. Pakistan armies image crisis is expected to continue as it is not able to adjust to the changing information dynamics with the military role in politics and excesses on the ground being a major talking point in social media. Continued capacity building and defence cooperation activities anticipated. Some naval deployments to meet the challenge in the Red Sea cannot be ruled out.
Economy
Forecast
A reach out to the International Monetary Fund for another tranche and bolstering reserves through appeals to traditional supporters ranging from China to Saudi Arabia and UAE will be in the offing. Structural changes required to put back the economy on a steady growth trajectory are unlikely as it is too early for the Government to commence reforms which the IMF is likely to insist.