A comprehensive forecast on Afghanistan in April 2024 to include international and regional relations, political developments. economy, internal security and defence
International Relations
Forecast
Differences West and China/Russia on human rights in Afghanistan is likely to be a cause for geopolitical stasis in major multinational institutions such as the UNSC on decisions related to Afghanistan amongst others. Taliban is expected to exploit these differences but there are severe limitations for international engagement of the so called Islamic Emirate which are evident due to further deterioration of human rights standards and what is now being called as gender apartheid.
United Nations Security Council [UNSC] decision to nominate special representative for Afghanistan on human rights is expected to see resistance and lack of access by the Taliban. Russia China and Iran would appease Taliban for national objectives even as this fits into their overall strategy of opposing the United States and the West geopolitically. Multiple checks are also anticipated on UN activities in Afghanistan. There are currently 24 UN agencies, funds and programmes in the UN Country Team, of which 20 are located in Afghanistan. The dilemma for the international community to engage with the Taliban which is opposed to adoption of universal human rights and has undertaken an approach of “my way as the highway,” is likely to remain a concern in the days ahead.
Regional Relations
Forecast
Relations with the regional actors such as Pakistan are likely to remain tense if not confrontationist in case of another major terrorist attack in that country and more deportations of migrants expected from April. Contentions with Iran are expected to continue with attempt by Tehran to muster Afghan Shia for combating Israel in Palestine. These major factors are expected to impact the relations even though issues such as trade, transit and so on will continue to be discussed with Iran and Pakistan. China is expected to attempt to increase influence by promising investment though how much it puts on the ground remains to be seen. Iran will continue policy of engagement with the Taliban in the form of quasi recognition. China is also expected to do the same with the view to gain maximum benefits from the economic, energy and mineral potential of the country. Central Asia is concerned over drug running and terrorism outflow from Afghanistan while India has also focused on the terrorism. India is likely to continue expansion of trade and development support without firm diplomatic or political commitments. India is unlikely to benefit in a major way from the tense relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan despite the latter being a common adversary.
Political Developments
Foresight
Deepening roots of ultra conservativism is expected to see women pushed out of the public place and medieval era punishments being imparted to the public at large. Taliban is expected to continue the rule by Sharia even as attempts to improve administration of ministries is underway to enhance accountability. The Islamic conservative turn in education is expected to continue. No attempts to engage with other ethnic and political groups is anticipated with persecution of the Shia Hazara expected to continue.
Internal Security
Forecast
Acts of violence in Afghanistan will remain low but there are concerns over sanctuaries being provided to al Qaeda amongst other global groups and the active presence of the Islamic State of Khorasan which was evident with the March attack on Taliban cadres in Kandahar the Islamic Emirate’s core. Despite regional and international concerns provision of sanctuaries and space for global as well as regional terrorist groups to operate with impunity is expected to continue. The perception that Taliban run Afghanistan is a haven for regional and global terrorists is expected to continue even as the Taliban will remain in denial. While groups as the National Resistance Front [NRF] and Afghanistan Freedom Front [AFF] Taliban’s refusal to acknowledge these indicates either denial or ineffectiveness of these strikes.
Defence
Foresight
As the Taliban attempts to transform from an insurgency into a government, its contingent of trained suicide bombers will be central to its military and political strategy. Suicide bombing is and ideological message with a view to legitimise the use of the same in the long insurgency which is resented by the public in Afghanistan. Attempts to regroup forces for conventional operations are expected to continue. Sustained reorganizing and regrouping of the Taliban force will continue with the ideological orientation focused on strict adherence to the depth chart of the Sharia.
Economy
Forecast
Claims of attempts to rejuvenate the economy as large number of investors and foreign delegations have been coming to Afghanistan seeing prospects particularly in the mining sector. However, lack of effective regulations and firm commitment apart from unwritten laws and decrees as well as security implies that these investments have not been converted into tangibles. China will continue to play with Taliban’s aspirations for investments yet investment will remain marginal. The humanitarian situation remains a major concern and sustained international aid and assistance will be necessary as the flow of refugees returning from Pakistan and Afghanistan will continue.