A comprehensive forecast of political, international and regional relations, defence and security and economy of Myanmar.
Political Developments
Forecast
Myanmar State Administration Council will focus on portraying normalcy by holding major events in and around Nay Pyi Taw. Attempts will be made to retain the façade of engagement with signatories of the Nation-wide cease fire agreement even as three of the 10 ethnic groups have chosen to revoke and joined the resistance alliance. National Unity Government (NUG) and the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) will attempt to expand influence while ethnic armed organisations who have secured major tracts of respective states can be expected to commence governance of these. Contesting claims of controls by the National Unity Government and the SAC even as there is a political and military stalemate are expected.
International & Regional Relations
Forecast
Limited attention of the West in Myanmar even as NUG is hoping to capitalize the human rights violations that have been flagged by the UN Human rights sphere. Continued Russian support to the military led administration is anticipated. China will face major challenges in sustaining projects of the China Myanmar Economic Corridor even as it will continue the strategy of engaging with the military as well as relevant ethnic groups simultaneously. Thailand’s new initiative on humanitarian support is expected to provide some relief to the hapless public in the South but the overall sustainability is in question. Divisions in ASEAN would imply that despite faith of the international community in it forming part of the solution, a tangible initiative is unlikely. India’s security concerns in the North-East and challenges to projects such as the Kaladan may force it to engage with the EAOs particularly the AA. All regional countries are likely to face the challenge of insecurity in the border areas as spill-over of fighting is anticipated.
Internal Security
Forecast
Continued gains for the resistance forces are anticipated in the ongoing civil war in the country despite the Myanmar Army’s attempts to undermine the resistance with extensive use of air and artillery fire. A military counter offensive using air and artillery fire power to regain some lost positions is unlikely to have an impact unless ground attacks are undertaken in tandem, while continued losses in Arakan and other states is anticipated with intensified fighting.
Defence
Forecast
Myanmar’s ruling military junta will increase air, attack helicopters and artillery attacks. Attempts by the military to muster conscripts and reservists are expected to gather steam. With limited training these may prove to be cannon fodder for the armed forces while giving false security in terms of numbers. Military would enforce a law allowing it to call up all men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 to serve for at least two years. Military is also calling up reservists while awarding death sentences to commanders who have surrendered invoking fear in the rank and file.
Economy
Forecast
Continued economic distress with the people suffering due to ongoing fighting and impact on sanctions on the SAC by Western countries.