A comprehensive forecast of Nepal in April 2024 to include international and regional relations, political developments. economy, internal security and defence
Political Developments
Forecast
Possibility of the tenure of Dahal 3.0 government being short lived cannot be ruled out as the move to create a much stronger government by the Nepali Congress and the CPN UML – the two largest parties in the parliament is doing the rounds. Growing demand for devolution of powers to the provinces, conversion of Nepal from a secular to a Hindu state and political mobilization by parties to muster support for gaining a single party majority in a future parliament also likely to be evident. Pressures on the Nepali government to perform through bringing the Transitional Justice to fruition and reallocating federal resources to the provinces is expected however lack of political will implies implementation of the demand will remain unfulfilled.
International & Regional Relations
Forecast
Return of hundreds of Nepali youth from Russia will remain a contentious issue with Moscow where Kathmandu has limited leverages given that the youth have voluntarily joined the War in Ukraine despite the surreptitious means used to lure them and coercive measure for continued detention. US and European Union members attempts to increase profile and influence in Nepal is expected to continue.
Balancing China and India relations will continue with increase in attempts to expedite projects assured by China under the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and power trade arrangements with India anticipated. As Nepal’s powerful neighbours are locked in a bilateral conflict and regional contest, there will be challenges for the country in balancing. Difficulties in balancing relations with China and India can be anticipated.
Defence
Forecast
Defence cooperation and assistance to government in development activities as well as commercial enterprises with the latter likely to be resented by civil society.
Economy
Forecast
Continued challenges to trigger the economic growth in the absence of restructuring the economy. The state of the economy will continue to drive a number of Nepali youth to hazard their lives in distant lands in the War in Ukraine