A comprehensive forecast on Bangladesh in April 2024 to include international and regional relations, political developments. economy, internal security and defence
Regional Relations
Forecast
Sustained relations with India are expected to be on stream along with outreach for investments and economic support of China. Balancing between India and China with selective approach to benefit trade, economy and infrastructure expected to continue. However, a nascent ‘India Out’ campaign by the opposition may remain a concern which may be exploited by China. Spillover of civil war from Myanmar is a security challenge. A possible retaliation by Myanmar forces to regain territories in Rakhine may force more Rohingyas to enter Bangladesh in the coming days. Border killings on the India Bangladesh border may add to anti India sentiment despite the assurance given during the BGB BSF director general's meet. Establishment of regional power and transport grid will receive greater attention.
International Relations
Forecast
Initial concerns over the US and some European countries raising a stigma over uncontested and one-sided elections held on January 07 are likely to gradually defuse with economic and trade relations receiving due emphasis. However, western emphasis on human rights, rule of law and judicial processes is expected to continue.
Political Developments
Forecast
Preparations are likely to intensify for the upazila elections which are to be held in the with Awami League having taken a decision not to allow the use of the Party symbol it is expected to be much contentious in case the BNP decides to participate. Awami League strategy appears to be to completely dominate the political space from the Jatiya Sansad to the Upazilas. Managing ongoing unrest at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet) may prove to be a challenge. Sustained consolidation by the Awami League, even as the BNP and Jamaat will attempt to stay relevant organizing dharnas and street side protests. The opposition will capitalize on economic and employment issues that may emerge to raise political challenges to the government.
Defence & Internal Security
Forecast
Capacity building is expected to continue along with defence cooperation activities with vigil on the Myanmar border. Security enhancements on the Bangladesh Myanmar border, internal security concerns in Rohingya camps are expected to continue and the presence of armed group Kuki-Chin National Front in Bandarban will have to be tackled.
Economy
Forecast
While economic growth will be on stream concerns over inflation are likely to continue. Banking sector remains a challenge and central bank is expected to undertake effective measures to streamline fiscal management by the banks before the problem magnifies.