Is this Beginning of the End for Iran?
Finally, the dice seems to be loaded against Iran as it faces multiple setbacks in just two weeks of ‘triumph’ in terms of closure of the second oil channel – the Bab el Mandeb after the Straits of Hormuz. Six key factors relevant to the contemporary and emerging scenarios in the Middle East and state of play of stakeholders, Iran Saudi Arabia, the Mecca Alliance and Yemeni forces covered herein.
Firstly, the global oil flows through the Gulf seem to have resumed reaching prewar levels, however Iran continues to face the oil blockade enforced by the United States.
Standard Chartered estimates crude and condensate exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran and including bypass routes such as Fujairah and the Red Sea, reached roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, broadly back to pre-war volumes as exporters have found ways to move the oil, though less efficiently and at higher cost. As time wares on Iran’s ace – control of Straits of Hormuz may lose the strategic value which has been the touch point for Tehran in the past rounds of negotiations at least ostensibly.
Secondly the advantage gained by the Ansarullah or Houthi the Iran aligned militia is now under threat as the group is facing a counter offensive launched by Yemeni government forces including on the country’s capital, Sanaa, which the Houthis have held since 2014. Of immediate consequence is control of the Dhubab district on the country’s west coast near the Bab al-Mandeb strait as well as port city of Mocha by the Yemeni government forces on October 05, a setback for the Houthis.
The announcement of the government offensive was made by Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the executive body of the Yemeni government which will push back Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and around the strategically important city of Taiz.
The Houthis in turn attacked an Aramco facility in the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
Thirdly the much-vaunted Mecca Joint Defence Alliance has been activated with an agreement to deploy military forces and capabilities in Saudi Arabia though the quantum still remains uncleae. The decision was taken at an emergency meeting of the Strategic Political and Defence Committee of the Makkah Alliance for Defence in Riyadh on October 05. The committee, "decided to move immediately to the practical implementation of the collective defence commitments and to take the necessary measures to provide the agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment in the Kingdom," as per a Joint Press Release. "The three countries affirmed that the security of each party is an integral part of the collective security of the three countries," the statement said. While Saudi troops will support the Yemeni Government forces, Turkey and Pakistan is likely to provide information and reconnaissance support. The United States is also providing strategic information to the Saudi Armed Forces. "Whatever assistance they require is being provided. But right now, the Turkish and Pakistani armies are playing a supportive role," Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said, adding that Pakistan was involved in reconnaissance.
Pakistan's Lt General Nauman Mahmood (Retd.) has taken over as the first secretary-general for a three-year term of the Strategic Political and Defence Committee [SPDC].
Fourthly Iran’s economic crisis is increasing. The US naval blockade has prevented any Iranian or dark fleet tanker from leaving the Gulf, and US claims that the 100 percent effective blockade has now been in place for 10 weeks. The Oil Minister, Mohsen Paknejad has resigned ostensibly due to personal and family considerations.
The euro broke through 300,000 tomans on Iran's informal market, while the US dollar hit a record 270,000 tomans — more than double its level at the start of this year, when it stood at around 135,000 tomans.
The free fall in currency and the lack of outlets for export is expected to stall the Iranian economy, but will it lead to a compromise at the negotiating table remains to be seen.
Fifthly Iran remains defiant as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Major General Mohsen Rezaei said the enemy’s past miscalculations in confronting Iran had led to “heavy defeats.” He expressed confidence that Iran would overcome the current complicated circumstances with strength under the wise leadership of Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, the support of the Iranian people, and coordination among all branches of the Islamic establishment.
Iran’s retaliation is likely to target the Gulf States oil and economic infrastructure directly apart from the US bases, which may lead to a major escalation with the US ostensibly planning a major finally offensive, thus the situation remains tense and extremely challenging.
Finally, Iran may be waiting out the US mid term elections due on 03 November less than four weeks away hoping to see a Republican rout as a setback to President Donald Trump. On the other hand, Mr Trump has reconciled at least internally to facing a hostile Congress post the polls and thus decision making on Iran is not likely to be impacted.
All in all the next few weeks may decide the future of the US/Israel- Iran war now in the seventh month.
Comments