With proxy militias such as Yemen based Houthi fronted or supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, striking close to the Indian coastline, the Middle East War is now in India's backyard.
Caught in the web of gray zone operations in the wider Iran and Israel confrontation in the Middle East [referred to as West Asia in the Indian diplomatic lexicon], India’s role as a net security provider, frequently flaunted by the military leadership will be under test.
Indian Navy will no longer be restricted to soft security operations as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, counter piracy and maritime crime but could be drawn into a shadow war in the region if the sea lines of communication of energy and trade in the Western Indian Ocean and the Arabia Sea are to be kept free.
Moreover, New Delhi’s diplomacy will also be under trial as strategic neighbours with which India has been able to balance relations such as Iran will challenge India with shadow wars roping in the country into the wider contest in the Middle East and beyond.
Trends of Concern
Events in the last month of 2023, seem to indicate these trends. As MV Chem Pluto, a Liberian-flagged chemical tanker sustained damage after a suspected drone attack. US's Department of Defence of the Pentagon declared that the suspected drone attack was launched from Iran. "The motor vessel CHEM PLUTO, a Liberia-flagged, Japanese-owned, and Netherlands-operated chemical tanker was struck at approximately 10 am local time (6 am GMT) today (Saturday) in the Indian Ocean, 200 nautical miles from the coast of India, by a one-way attack drone fired from Iran," the Pentagon spokesperson said.
However, the Indian Navy was evasive saying that in the December 23 attack projectile could be a drone or a missile and declared that it will to carry out, 'forensic analysis' of ‘drone attack’
Iran rejected US allegations that its drone targeted MV Chem PlutoIran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said, “We declare these claims as completely rejected and worthless. Such claims are aimed at projecting, distracting public attention, and covering up for the full support of American government for the crimes of the Zionist regime (Israel) in Gaza.”
In a formal statement, the Navy said, Indian Navy stated that mission-deployed platforms responded swiftly to a maritime incident in the Arabian Sea involving a missile/ drone attack on MT Chem Pluto. The vessel with 22 crew (21 Indian and one Vietnamese - MV Chem Pluto (Liberia-flagged, Japanese-owned, and Netherlands-operated) tanker was reported on fire after being hit by a projectile at around 0745 h on 23 Dec 23 likely to be a missile or drone. Responding swiftly to the developing situation, the Indian Navy diverted a maritime patrol aircraft operating in the area to undertake routine surveillance as per the Statement.
Indian Navy also diverted Indian naval ship Mormugao to assess the situation and provide assistance to MT Chem Pluto. The naval maritime patrol aircraft over flew MT Chem Pluto at 1315 h on 23 Dec 23 and established contact with the crew. The crew reported all 22 members to be safe and that the fire had been extinguished.
The Navy also communicated details of the developing situation to all Indian maritime agencies for rendering necessary assistance.
INS Mormugao communicated with MT Chem Pluto at 1930 h on 23 Dec 23 to ascertain if any assistance was required. CGS Vikram, also present at scene, was directed to escort the vessel to Mumbai.
A Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) specialist embarked on MV Chem Pluto on arrival at Mumbai to sanitise the ship and undertake further investigation. Indian Navy continues to monitor the situation very closely with all stakeholders and remains committed to ensuring safety of merchant shipping in the region said the statement.
Coincidence or Sinister Plot
This comes even as a Gabon-flagged commercial crude oil tanker with 25 Indian crew members also reportedly came under a drone attack in the Southern Red Sea but no one was injured.
Meanwhile, an explosion-like sound was heard behind the Israeli Embassy on December 26 evening; though, no explosive was recovered from the spot. Delhi Police have registered an FIR against "unknown" persons.
There are reportedly striking similarities between the explosion and the IED blast near the Israel Embassy on January 29, 2021.
In another such incident targeting Israel embassy staff, in 2012, five members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard were accused of attempting to kill an Israeli diplomat with a magnetic bomb.
Are these incidents mere coincidence or there is a sinister design by Iran or its proxies needs detailed investigation and the jury is still out, but review of threat panorama and preventive measures against the same are called for.
Indian Response
“India plays the role of a Net Security Provider in the entire Indian Ocean Region. We will ensure that maritime trade in this region touches greater heights. For this, together with our friendly countries, we will keep the sea lanes secure. We have full confidence in the ability and strength of our Navy,” said Defence Minister Shri Rajnath Singh in the wake of the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea during a function for launch of INS Imphal in Mumbai.
"The Indian government has taken the drone attack on MV Chem Pluto and attack on MV Saibaba in the Red Sea seriously. We will find those who executed the recent attacks on merchant navy ships even from the depths of the seas and take strict action against them," Defence Minister Rajnath Singh added.
Responding to the same incident Indian Navy Chief Admiral R Hari Kumar pointed out that to counter piracy & drone attacks on merchant shipping, the Indian Navy has deployed four destroyers of Project 15B & 15A class deployed.
He added that the P8I Aircraft, Dorniers, Sea Guardians, Helicopters & Coast Guard Ships have all been deployed jointly to counter these threats.
The Navy added that it deployed Guided Missile Destroyers, INS Mormugao, INS Kochi and INS Kolkata (Guided Missile Destroyers) in various areas in the Arabian Sea to maintain a "deterrent presence". "Long-range maritime reconnaissance P8I aircraft are being regularly tasked to maintain domain awareness," it said.
The Gray Zone Challenge
While the response to the attack on the merchant ships has been quick by the Indian Navy in deploying at least four warships to this zone including the north Arabian Sea to ensure smooth sea lines of communication, there is a challenge for India as some of its partners are now engaged in either open or in covert wars.
This includes Russia, Israel and Iran. How Indian diplomacy will be able to manage this challenge in 2024 remains to be seen, even as the military will have to be prepared to take on what is known as the Gray zone wars in which the adversary is not easily identifiable, nor can any open action be taken against it in case it is defined.
For the past almost three months, the United States has been facing gray zone attacks in Iraq and Syria by Iranian proxies targeting bases. India has wisely avoiding getting entangled in the larger conflict in the Middle East with attacks on shipping while the threat of a drone strike on Indian Navy warships cannot be ruled out.
Devoid of dedicated anti drone systems, the Naval ships are increasingly vulnerable.
And as prospect of a prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza and the spillover of the conflict to attacks on ships in the Red Sea and beyond would imply that the Navy will have to be on call for some time to come.