Momentum is building up for holding the 16th Round of Senior Commanders talks with multiple media reports confirming that suitable dates are under finalisation.
16th Round will be held after the last one almost five months back on March 11, however there has been no breakthrough in disengagement and de-escalation for over a year now after there was a pull back from PP 15 A or Hot Springs in August last year.
The main contention remains Patrolling Point-15 (PP-15) in the Kungrang Nullah area which is said to be an access route to Kongka La a key pass leading into the Aksai Chin hinterland and beyond.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for tactical and operational reasons is unwilling to pull back from this area perceiving a setback of sorts. As the level of alertness of Indian troops on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has increased manifold in the past two years, returning to such critical pivots in the near future will be near impossible without having to incur heavy losses..
As negotiations are moving step by step as per the PLA’s creeping approach to negotiations, the other two main areas of contentions - Depsang Plains and the Charding Ninglung Nallah (CNN) track junction at Demchok will be taken up subsequent to a breakthrough in Kungrang or PP 15.
While the PLA continues to be stodgy diplomacy in recent days has raised some hopes of a political direction to the Chinese military for a pull back.
Diplomacy in action
A number of diplomatic events in the recent past have raised hopes of a breakthrough.
First was the attendance of the Indian Prime Minister virtual BRICS Summit hosted by China. Multilateral diplomacy between India and China has been ongoing thus the expectations of continuance of the BRICS summit was in order.
Importantly the External or Foreign Minister’s of the two countries have been meeting often in the recent past. The latest meeting was on the side lines of the G 20 Foreign Ministers meet in Bali Indonesia.
The Ministry of External Affairs New Delhi Press release highlighted that External Affairs Minister (EAM) met State Councilor and Foreign Minister of China Mr. Wang Yi on 07 July 2022 in Bali, Indonesia on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and “called for an early resolution of all the outstanding issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. Recalling the disengagement achieved in some friction areas, EAM reiterated the need to sustain the momentum to complete disengagement from all the remaining areas to restore peace and tranquility in the border areas”.
“In this regard, both Ministers affirmed that the military and diplomatic officials of the two sides should continue maintaining regular contact and looked forward to the next round of Senior Commanders’ meeting at an early date,” the release added.
Importantly the two had also met in March 2022 at New Delhi.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi appealed for peaceful resolution of the border issue in his meeting with Pradeep Rawat, Indian Ambassador to Beijing, on June 22.
This was the first formal meeting by the new Indian Ambassador and occurred after China had blocked the designation of Lashkar-e-Toiba’s second in command Abdul Rehman Makki as UN global terrorist under UNSC resolution 1267
Wang Yi conveyed to the Indian ambassador Pradeep Rawat at a meeting in Beijing that the two should carry out more engagements in multilateral forums. The "agreement" that the two sides should make full use of the opportunities provided by multilateral meetings to continue their exchange of views, including between the foreign ministers of the two countries. Wang approved of foreign minister S Jaishankar publicly expressed disapproval of "European centralism and objections to external forces meddling in China India relations."
"The common interests between China and India far outweigh the differences. The two sides should bear in mind the overall interests of bilateral relations, help each other succeed instead of engaging in attrition, strengthen cooperation instead of guarding against each other, and enhance trust instead of being suspicious of each other," said Wang in his meeting with Rawat as per the Times of India.
"Recently, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar publicly expressed his disapproval of European centralism and objections to external forces meddling in China-India relations. That reflects India's tradition of independence," Wang told Rawat as per the New Indian Express.
PLA Maneouvres in Tibet
While diplomacy has been on a high, China’s People’s Liberation Army and air force are conducting exercises in Tibet in Eastern Ladakh.
During these exercises it was reported that a Chinese fighter jet flew very close to Indian troop positions at one of the “friction points” along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh on June 28 as per the Times of India.
Chinese Air Force has now maintained presence of 25 frontline fighters at Hotan air base which include J-11, and J-20 fighters. It is not clear if the Chinese overflight was to test the Indian air defence systems or was due to misreading of the terrain.
Conclusion
PLA long term objective is to maintain a strong posture on the LAC in Eastern Ladakh with a view to dominate the India infrastructure development and provide depth to their vulnerabilities in the Aksai China area.
Against this backdrop will there be a pull back from Kugrang Nallah areas remains to be seen?
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