Houthi Hybrid Swarm Tactics and the New Phase of Yemen War
The Houthi use of hybrid drone and missile swarms is tactically innovative and strategically cost-effective placing high cost Saudi Arabian air and missile defences with low interceptor magazine at a distinct disadvantage. But who will win the current phase in the Yemen War, here is a review.
The Ansarullah Yemen’s anti-government militia supported by Iran also known as the Houthi movement's employment of hybrid swarm tactics has created asymmetry in terms of results achieved at cheap cost against advanced weaponry. The hybrid swarm comprises of simultaneous deployment of a mix of aerial drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles which was most evident recently in operations launched against the internationally recognised Yemen government and Saudi Arabia.
The Houthi control of the Bab el Mandeb strait disrupted oil flows through these crucial waters even as the Straits of Hormuz has seen increase in Iranian attacks amidst the blockade by the United States.
Even as Saudi Arabia supported Yemen government forces launched a counter offensive to regain lost areas, the Houthi simultaneously flung a series of hybrid swarm attacks at key civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia including international airfields although these are clearly war crimes has created multiple disruptions
Thus, Riyadh’s primary military challenge against Houthi hybrid swarms is to match the cost-exchange ratio. Firing a $2 million to $4 million interceptor missile to destroy a $20,000 commercially assembled drone is economically and logistically unsustainable over a prolonged conflict.
These tactics though not new have attained a strategic dimension putting to question the reliance of countries in the Gulf to highly sophisticated yet expensive air and missile defence systems. The vulnerability to the overall model of the Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia of expanding economic and business zones protected by these systems touted as impenetrable is also exposed.
The Hybrid Swarm
The hybrid swam comprises of loitering munitions acting as decoy or strike if it slips through the net which are expendable and are low cost. These are accompanied by terrain hugging cruise missiles evading the radars and ballistic missiles hurling down on the target at high speed. The capability of Houthis to launch ballistic missiles is unique for a non-state actor and has thus taken the rivals by surprise.
The hybrid swarm overwhelms the processing capacity of radar operators and depletes array of highly expensive interceptors of the U.S. Aegis combat system or the Patriot missile system.
The cost asymmetry is also relevant as the drones are made from commercially available components costing thousands of dollars as against the $2 million and $4 million per shot of interceptor missiles employed by the Saudis.
With known shortfall in armoury of the U.S. availability of air defence penetrators to allies Saudi Arabia is also limited.
The Supporting Narrative
Hybrid swarm attacks are supported by the narrative which is amplified with the disruption in air services to Riyadh amongst other airports and the message spread far and wide. However, strike claims cannot be independently confirmed on either side, and the Saudi coalition refutes some of the Houthis' claims.
Countering Hybrid Swarms
To counter hybrid swarms a cost effective option is soft kills, thus Saudi Arabia is shifting away from relying purely on expensive kinetic missiles toward an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) architecture.
These systems utilize directional jammers to disrupt the GPS navigation signals and radio command links of incoming loitering munitions.
By severing the drone's connection to its operator or its geographic coordinates, the swarm can be forced to crash or drift off course harmlessly.
Thus, the attempt is to employ the cheapest option available from electronic warfare to laser weapons preserving high-end interceptors for advanced missiles.
Lasers offer a low "cost-per-shot" and a nearly infinite magazine capacity, meaning they don't run out of ammunition during a saturation attack.
Saudi Arabia has reportedly deployed Chinese-made "Silent Hunter" mobile laser air-defence systems around critical infrastructure near Riyadh.
Who will win this Phase of the Yemen War?
The Saudi Houthi conflict extends into history drawn from legacy of several decades and is a part of the larger Iran and Saudi Arabia contested sectarian and regional feud.
With disruption of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s projection of modern and vibrant Saudi Arabian economy independent of the oil revenues by 2030, the Houthis may have imposed caution on global investors as well.
Saudi Arabia has mustered support from allies of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement mainly Pakistan and Turkey.
European partners as France and UK have pitched in, while the United States under President Donald Trump is evasive possibly in the run up to the Congressional elections on November 03.
The reliance is now on the Yemen government ground offensive which was announced by Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the executive body of the Yemeni government which will push back Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and around the strategically important city of Taiz. Ultimately activation of the internationally supported Yemen government forces on the ground with air support by Saudi Arabia targeted at the centre of gravity of Houthi strike capabilities will determine the outcome which may take some time to have effect.
Resolve rather than impatience for success with be the way ahead.
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