India Bangladesh Relations – Forecast -Trajectory Positive

With the distinctly anti Delhi interim administration of Professor Mohammad Yunus out of the way and a Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP] government led by pragmatist Tarique Rehman now holding the reins in Dhaka, India Bangladesh relations have assumed a positive trajectory, though caution is essential.

High Level Engagements

India, aiming to restore relations with the new Bangladeshi government, has engaged in diplomatic meetings and attended notable events, including BNP chief Tarique Rahman’s inauguration and family funeral services.

Ongoing developments denote both countries are working to build a positive relationship despite the Hasina factor.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first to congratulate BNP and its Chairman Tarique Rahman for the party’s landslide victory in the 13th parliamentary elections. 

Indian Parliament Speaker attended the swearing in ceremony of Tarique Rahman though Mr Modi was invited but was possibly engaged in the AI Impact Summit ongoing in Delhi. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Dr Shafiqur Rahman, opposition leader in parliament and ameer of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami to discuss bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh.

Regionally, Rahman’s outreach to India—receiving congratulations and an invitation to Prime Minister Modi—suggests continuity in bilateral cooperation, which is crucial for trade, security, and connectivity. The Agartala–Kolkata bus service via Dhaka resumed from February 24 after remaining suspended for several months another indicator of improved engagement at the actionable level. Both countries are expected to resume visa services shortly. On March 8, Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma stated that Bangladesh and India can turn their close geography into economic opportunities by focusing on a forward-looking, people-centered agenda. He shared this after meeting Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury at the Secretariat.

Security Engagements

Bangladesh Director General Forces Intelligence [DGFI] chief Major General Kaiser Rashid Chowdhury recently visited New Delhi, meeting with India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, Director General of Military Intelligence Lt Gen RS Raman, and RAW chief Parag Jain at a security conclave held on the sidelines of the Raisina Dialogue.

No official Indian statements were released regarding Chowdhury’s visit, which marked the first high-level interaction since Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s government took office in Bangladesh. Talks focused on reopening communication channels and preventing misuse of both countries’ territories by hostile groups. The visit was kept confidential, with some reports in Bangladesh attributing it to “medical reasons.”

Arrests Linked to Security Collaboration?

Following intelligence sharing, West Bengal police arrested two Bangladeshi nationals connected to the murder of student leader Sharif Osman Hadi. While media linked these arrests to Chowdhury’s visit, officials clarified that the connection is indirect and Faisal Karim Masud and Alamgir Hossain, suspects in Hadi’s murder were arrested, based on Bangladeshi intelligence. They entered India illegally, traveled through several regions, and were arrested at Bongaon.

Investigations are ongoing, and repatriation is underway Hadi died in Singapore after being shot in Dhaka.

The post Hasina period of India Bangladesh relations have been turbulent but the BNP as it appears is willing to demonstrate positive approach and reset the clock so to say as in the past the Party did not have favourable outcomes with Delhi.

Concerns Ahead

The perennial concerns in India Bangladesh relations however remain. The state elections in Assam in India may have adverse repercussions as the theme by the ruling BJP there is on evicting foreigners from Bangladesh.

Extradition of Sheikh Hasina is another critical issue it remains to be seen how far the BNP will make this as a focal point of engagement as did the Interim Administration in the past.

Tarique who has been in exile in the UK for long may have a different approach.

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami with encouragement from Pakistan and Turkey could well attempt to muddy the waters.

But the developments in the Middle East having an impact on the economy of Bangladesh could provide another vector for taking the relationship forward with New Delhi willing to soften the shocks for Dhaka.