Bangladesh: Examining Critical Drivers for the BNP Government

10 days may be too short a period to forecast the political trajectory of a Tarique Rahman-led government in Bangladesh, given the turbulent political past, whether in the time when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, then led by Tarique’s mother Begum Khaleda Zia, or in the long years of her bete noir, Sheikh Hasina. The Interim Administration under Professor Mohammad Yunus went far beyond its mandate of restoring stability, political and security, thus failing to provide the incoming government a sound foundation on which to take the country forward. Undoing some of the damage, particularly in the socio- security sphere, may be one of the first tasks of the BNP-led government, and in this, the Prime Minister Tarique has sent the right signals, including on relations with India.

For starters, the political mandate for the BNP and Mr Tarique Rahman is well-endowed even though a key political party, the Awami League, was kept out of the polls. The BNP has an overwhelming majority, winning 49.97 per cent of the vote and 209 seats. The main opposition will be the Jamaat-e-Islami, with 31.76 per cent of the vote and 68 seats.  With 3 per cent of the votes, the Nationalist Citizen Party [NCP] has gained entry into the parliament. How the BNP will use its over two-thirds majority in parliament and whether the opposition will play a responsible role will determine whether the country's legacy of a polarised socio-political divide is replaced by structural reforms. This may be a tall order from now, even though Mr Tarique has sent the right signals, personally reaching out to the Jamaat and NCP leaders post-elections. He has also strongly signalled the need for pluralism and the protection of minorities, while prioritising law and order. His directions to ministers and state ministers to refrain from making unwarranted remarks that could trigger controversy or undermine the government’s image are important as in the political environment post elections and a media space that is increasingly homing on to controversy, speaking less or through the spokesperson is the best option  A meeting on strengthening religious and social harmony was held at the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) in Tejgaon indicating that pluralism will be encouraged. By emphasising “no room for politics of vengeance,” Rahman is attempting to project stability.

Many significant challenges remain, including implementing the July Charter, fulfilling the mandate of the Referendum, creating a constitutional assembly, reinstating the caretaker government system to oversee elections as the BNP has proposed with a 90-day tenure, and establishing an upper house. According to The Daily Star, the BNP has backed restoring the caretaker government system, indicating their readiness to participate in and accept the results of free and fair polls. A part of the same is providing space to elements of the Awami League, though full restoration of the Party will not be acceptable to the Jamat and the NCP. Accountability is another factor.

Relations with India are a sine qua non for stability internally as well as for the economy. There are positive signals from both sides, even though the presence of Ms Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister, in Delhi will remain a sore point.

Civil-military relations remain on stream, as the Bangladesh Army has, for the past decade-plus, reconciled itself to respecting subordination to the political authority in power. Mr Tarique, as Hasina before him has retained the Defence portfolio. On the occasion of the anniversary of the infamous Bangladesh Rifles Mutiny, Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman said the nation must remain united to ensure that no incident like that of February 25-26 ever recurs, describing it as a “stain” on the country’s history. He said that under a special directive and in the presence of the prime minister, the day is being observed in this manner for the first time, and an iftar has been arranged for the families of the martyred. On behalf of all present, he thanked PM Tarique, saying his presence instilled confidence and hope among the family members of the soldiers martyred at Pilkhana. “The Bangladesh Army and Border Guard Bangladesh are working together to protect the country’s independence and sovereignty.”

The government's performance will be judged mainly by the state of the economy. In a development that does not augur well for the financial and banking sector, Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur was replaced by Mostaqur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Hera Sweaters Ltd. Mansur, a former IMF economist, had undertaken aggressive reforms that angered powerful businessmen and entrenched factions in the banking sector. The sudden replacement by the BNP government does not inspire confidence in the pursuit of reforms to clean up Bangladesh’s banking sector.

A survey of the critical drivers for Bangladesh to realise the potential of its geography, history, renewed resistance against oppression in July 2024, vast human resources, and economic potential identifies the vectors for action by the Tarique Rahman government. How far these are given a positive direction, and not just a spin, will determine Bangladesh's emergence as a responsible nation in the comity of South Asia ahead.