Bangladesh in Structured Polls: Tarique Heads to Be Next PM

Tarique Rehman : Bangladesh Next Prime Minister? Source BNP Video Frame

As Tarique Rehman is set to be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh, here is a review of the developments and what could be a “crown of thorns,” for the PM.

Amid the structured polls in Bangladesh, where one of the leading political parties, the Awami League, was banned from participation, its closest rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is heading towards forming the government as vote counting continued, positioning it ahead of former ally Jamaat-e-Islami. This comes after violence was rare in polling trends across the country.

BNP Election Symbol

BNP has consolidated its lead over its once-ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, as the counting for general elections to replace the interim administration, which took charge after the collapse of the Awami League regime in August 2024, progressed on February 12th.

The election is seen as a direct contest between the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami in the absence of Awami League. While the polling was largely seen as free and fair, a welcome occurrence, no one was killed in election-related violence on polling day of the 13th national parliamentary election.  Dhaka Tribune, a Bangladesh daily, remarked that this is the first time since 1991 that polling day for a parliamentary or general election has passed without fatalities from electoral violence.

However at least seven people died in and around polling centres across the country during the election and referendum mostly of natural causes.

Around 958,000 personnel from the police, army and paramilitary forces were deployed throughout the country. Police and army personnel were stationed outside most polling booths. Fears that Awami League cadres will interrupt the process appear to be exaggerated.

The Jamaat e Islami which was attempting to make major gains in the polls after the Awami League was banned may have missed out on an opportunity but the vote for the BNP is in line with the largely pluralist character of the country where right wing and Islamist forces have failed to make major gains in the past despite high public visibility.

Vote counting in the 13th national parliamentary election, conducted early this morning, showed the BNP securing a majority of seats, with the party winning 151 constituencies so far.

Initial trends also indicated Jamaat-e-Islami would emerge as the main opposition, securing 43 seats.

In unofficial results, Election Commission officials said BNP chairman and former premier Khaleda Zia's son, Tarique Rahman, won the seat in his home district, Bugura. Rahman polled 2,16,284 votes, according to the returning officer of the constituency.

Speaking at campaign events nationwide, BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman described the election as pivotal to the country’s political future. In an interview with Deutsche Welle on Tuesday, he said: “We are confident that we will have enough seats to form the government.”

BNP has already declared that Tarique will be the Prime Minister.

The Chairman of the party will face multiple challenges of leading the nation on the path to a middle-income country overcoming past legacy of violence in politics, authoritarianism and his own backdrop of conviction of conspiring attacks on the former Prime Minister and Awami League chair Sheikh Hasina in 2004.

Returning from a two decades of exile, how far he is tuned to the reality of Bangladesh politics remains to be seen.

Will the large bulge of youth in the country, who led the protests that ousted Hasina in August 2024, accept the outcome and be ready to support the BNP-led government, which has its own baggage? That remains to be seen.

Regionally he will have to stand by this statement pre-elections "Neither Delhi nor Pindi, Bangladesh comes first"

India will be, no doubt, pleased with the outcome, as there were indications that the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami may form the government.

Thus it was not surprising that Indian Prime Minister has congratulated Tarique Hussain in a Tweet.

And then there is the Trump administration which has declared an openly hostile approach to growing presence of China in Bangladesh and is willing to take Beijing head on as it seems using tariffs as a weapon for the export dependent economy. Balancing between China and Pakistan will be inevitable.

Indeed, for Tarique it could be a crown of thorns.