Bangladesh Polls: Parties, Leaders and Polls Surveys

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With just a day to go for the Bangladesh polls, 59 registered political parties  are in Bangladesh, excluding the Awami League. 51 parties are actively participating in elections by fielding candidates. 1,981 candidates are contesting, including 249 independent candidates.

Here is a review of the main parties, leaders in the fray and what the polls say -

The main contesting parties are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Centre right party which is led by Tarique Rahman. The BNP has been in power in the past and was the main opponent of the Sheikh Hasina led Awami League. A sympathy factor of the recent death after prolonged illness of Chairwoman Khaleda Zia of the party may assist in garnering votes. Rahman, returned home in December after nearly two decades in exile in London following a youth-led uprising that toppled long-time leader Sheikh Hasina, a bitter rival of his mother, the country's first woman Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Jamaat-e-Islami – is led by Shafiqur Rahman and is a pro religion party which has formed an electoral alliance with the National Citizen Party (NCP) thought the other major Islamic Andolan has not formed an alliance with the Jamaat thus possibly splitting the votes. Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh’s manifesto typically aims to project itself as a values driven, socially conservative, welfare oriented party rooted in Islamic principles. It seeks to portray a platform focused on moral governance, anti corruption, social justice, expanded welfare programmes, and stronger Islamic education, while also emphasising economic equity, youth employment, and community based development. The manifesto often frames the party as a clean, disciplined alternative to mainstream political actors. Jamaat has said it is open to renewing the partnership for a unity government to help stabilise the country, whose giant garments industry was badly disrupted by months of turmoil in 2024.

All opinion polls have forecast a BNP victory but also a stiff challenge from the Jamaat alliance, which includes a Gen Z party that emerged from the anti-Hasina protests.

NCP is possibly likely to lose out because of the alliance with the Jamaat.

International coverage portrays Tarique Rahman as a prime ministerial frontrunner because of a convergence of political momentum, public sentiment, and structural shifts in Bangladesh’s governance landscape. "Mr Rahman, the 60-year-old scion of a famous political family, is the front-runner to become Bangladesh's prime minister after a general election on February 12th," reads an analysis by the Economist weekly.

The Economist's prediction came after several other international outlets, like the US-based Time magazine and Bloomberg, made identical predictions on Rahman's prospects of being Bangladesh's next premier in their recent analyses.

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As per the Daily Star public opinion survey by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) predicted the BNP-led alliance could win around 208 seats in the 13th national elections thus gaining a decisive majority to form the government. Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance may secure about 46 seats.

Other surveys however predict a neck to neck race between the BNP and the Jamaat.