21st Century: An Era of Political Transitions In Nepal

Balendra Shah Prime Ministerial Candidate RSP Source Wikipedia

Nepal has seen multiple political transitions in the 21st Century. The 2006 Democracy Movement was opposed to Nepal's monarchical system under King Gyanendra. This followed the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, on the path to the formation of a Constituent Assembly, leading to a full-fledged, democratic constitution on September 20, 2015. The country was officially transformed into a secular, inclusive, and federal democratic republic. Promulgated by President Ram Baran Yadav, the constitution replaced the 2007 interim constitution and created seven provinces to decentralise power.

Many elections were held thereafter, which mainly led to coalition governments marred by bitter power conflicts and to the same leaders and parties occupying the prized Prime Ministerial chair. Disillusionment amongst the youth was evident, and the writing was on the wall after what was seen in other countries in the region – Sri Lanka in 2022 and Bangladesh in 2024.

How much this contributed to what is now known as the Gen Z Revolution in Nepal on 08 and 09 September last year is unclear. Still, the resentment in the established order was certainly a writing on the wall that only those established leaders, blind to power, the ruling clique of Deuba, Olie, and partly Prachanda, failed to see until the President and the Nepali Army forced their hands to step down. That the former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli lost his seat to what could be called the future Prime Minister, Balendra Shah, in the March 2026 polls is an indicator of how deep the public's angst against the established political leadership in the country was.

This brought in an interim government led by a former Supreme Court Justice, Ms Sushila Karki, at the helm in Kathmandu. This threadbare administration focused on holding polls on March 05 this year.

This task has no doubt been accomplished far more effectively than in Bangladesh, if not in Sri Lanka.

The objective of the September 8 and 9, 2025, agitation by the country's youth was essentially to evict the old political guard, as the poll's outcome clearly shows.

Indeed, what can be called the second phase of the Gen Z revolution in Nepal is now underway, following the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP)'s overwhelming victory in the country's polls.

As per Republica Report of 08 March, Election Commission (EC) has announced that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) secured victory in 124 constituencies. Nepali Congress is in the second spot with a huge margin- 17 victories, while CPN-UML trails it with 8 victories. The RSP, NC and UML candidates are leading in one constituency each.

The Nepali Communist Party (NCP) secured 7 victories, while the Shram Shanskriti Party is trailing with 3 victories. The Rastriya Prajantantra Party (RPP) and an independent candidate each won one seat.

Also Republica highlights that under the proportional representation vote count, which is also underway, RSP has topped with over 4.1 million votes, followed by NC with over 1.3 million, UML with over 1.1 million, NCP with over 614 thousand, and Shram Sanskriti Party with over 300 thousand.

In fact, all established leaders except for Prachanda, head of the Communist Party of Nepal, lost the polls.

What is clear so far is that the RSP will lead the federal government with the possibility of a two third majority not ruled out.

Now the challenging part for the RSP is to deliver on issues for which the revolution was launched - elimination of corruption, institutional accountability, media freedom and good governance.

Recognising the challenge, Balendra Shah, Prime Ministerial candidate of the RSP, warned, “Dear Gen Z, the resignation of your killer has come. Now your generation will have to lead the country. Be prepared.”

There would be no doubt that many trials lie ahead, given that the established parties even though having lost in the HoR polls are well entrenched in the political, economic and government structures.

The RSP leadership lacks experience in national governance will have to manage the bureaucracy, as well as political opposition.

Moreover, in Nepal’s federal structure, only the top layer, the Federal Government in Kathmandu and the House of Representatives, will be controlled by the RSP. The old guard parties will lead the National Assembly.

The provincial and local bodies remain in the hands of parties that were ousted from power.

The RSP will need to shed inhibitions and reach out to the administrations within these bodies, as well as in the National Assembly.

On the foreign policy front, the looming challenge remains the possible repatriation of thousands of Nepali migrants from the Gulf, thereby not only reducing remittances but also exacerbating the unemployment glut at home.

While there is hope that the new leadership in the country will bring about change, that is the call of the day; Nepal’s history of revolutions over the past two and a half decades underscores the need for caution.