Nepal’s Path to Stability: A Short-Term Perspective

As Sushila Karki crowdsourced electee of the Gen Z in Nepal takes over as the Prime Minister here is a look at the path ahead for stability in short-term perspective from enforcement of justice, politics and the economy with role of external stakeholders.

Nepal’s institutions – the President and the Army as well as the judiciary have shown the sagacity and the capacity to absorb the shock of 27 hours of turmoil faced by the country which was unprecedented in history of nations in South Asia and beyond.

The failure of political parties which populated the legislature for the past ten years plus to meet aspirations of the people at large led to the sudden crisis which frankly was least expected.

Yes, there were concerns for those who saw the internal faultlines of corruption, unemployment, failure of low economic growth distancing the marginalized, inequity in distribution of wealth and the profligacy of a well-entrenched elite which had failed to keep an ear to the ground.

Now that Prime Minister Sushila Karki selected by the Gen Z leadership through use of crowd sourced instant opinion polls has assumed office along with three ministers, Rameshwore Khanal, Om Prakash Aryal and Kulman Ghising sworn there is a quick end to the political vacuum.

President Ram Chandra Paudel appointed Karki by exercising constitutional powers vested in the head of state to uphold the Constitution and promote national unity.

Acting on the new prime minister's recommendation, he has mandated the interim government to conduct new parliamentary elections within six months.

First Task of Government

Karki was realistic enough to accept that the transition was indeed perplexing. “I have never seen such a transformation in just about 27 hours of protests. To meet this group’s demands, we must all work with determination. I did not come here out of desire; I took on this responsibility after you all urged me to step in,” she said. 

She thus outlined the first task of her government to investigate the vandalism targeting Singha Durbar, Parliament building, Supreme Court, business complexes, and private property.

Attacks on political leaders as former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, his wife and foreign minister Arzu Rana Deuba as well as of Rajyalaxmi Chitrakar the wife of a former Prime Minister Jhalanath Khanal who unfortunately lost her life in the arson attack also need to be investigated and culprits punished.

Karki has indicated that the arson and vandalism that occurred during the Gen Z protest last week were criminal acts against the country.

However, Nepal’s process of criminal justice is unequal to this challenge and thus another sore point will emerge with the transitional justice mechanisms post the communist insurgency still languishing a decade after end of violence with denial of reparations to the victims of violence.

Role of Nepal Army

While the violence is condemnable, the manner in which the situation was brought under control by the Nepal Army demonstrates a strong commitment to ensuring security and law and order in the country to prevent anarchy.

Now that the new Prime Minister was sworn in the Army has stepped back vowing not to interfere in the ministerial portfolios and formation of the cabinet.

Nepal Army has accepted all political changes and has not attempted to influence this space in the country but for an incident of clash between the CPN Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal and then Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal in 2009, the record is flawless.

Chief of the Army Staff General Ashok Raj Sigdel Chettri has firmly instructed all officers, “No one should recommend names for ministerial appointments. The Prime Minister will decide who becomes a minister.” He has outlined the need for the uniformed to remain politically neutral, uphold national unity, and work as a foundation of national trust.

The President Ram Chandra Poudel has also played a stellar role accepting the inevitability of dissolution of the House and leading the nation through change rather than succumbing to supporting his past political compatriots.

Rejuvenating the Economy

The task before the new administration is to commence the process of rejuvenation of the economy with annual growth of 4.2 percent from 1996 to 2023 and leading to massive unemployment marked at 20.8 percent for those aged 15 – 24, leading to large scale migration of youth. This has added a silver lining of remittances, which account for approximately 26.6 percent of GDP in 2023 but is structurally flawed leading to dependence.

Transparency International's 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Nepal 107th out of 180 countries, with a score of 34 with limited progress over the years.

Importantly the Prime Minister and three ministers have a strong reputation to stand up against corruption.

While Prime Minister Karki has a short tenure prior to the elections, a firm path towards economic growth based on elimination of corruption and employment of youth will be necessary.

Support of Regional and Global Stakeholders

The response of global and regional stakeholders to the change of administration has been positive.

The most significant amongst these is India which has welcomed the new interim government. “We welcome the formation of a new Interim Government in Nepal, led by Right Honourable Mrs Sushila Karki. We are hopeful that this would help in fostering peace and stability. As a close neighbour, a fellow democracy and a long term development partner, India will continue to work closely with Nepal for the well-being and prosperity of our two peoples and countries,” a statement of the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi said.

China too has welcomed Karki and the new government. "We are ready to work with Nepal to promote the five principles of peaceful co-existence, to exchange and increase support in different sectors and further strengthen bilateral relations," shared the Chinese Embassy quoting the Spokesperson.

"We look forward to working with the interim government in the months ahead as they prepare for new elections," says a statement released by the US Embassy in Kathmandu.

The United Kingdom has also welcomed the appointment of Sushila Karki as the country’s interim Prime Minister

It would augur well for the external actors to remain out of the internal political transition in Nepal supporting the same actively towards the elections and more importantly the economy.

Internal Resistance to Change

Internally the initial reactions have been less favourable.  The Nepal Bar Association (NBA), the umbrella body of legal professionals, has condemned the dissolution of the House of Representatives, calling it unconstitutional and arbitrary. “The President’s decision to dissolve the House of Representatives also contradicts the Supreme Court’s earlier ruling on the reinstatement of Parliament,” a statement by NBA read.

General Secretary of the former ruling party the CPN UML, Shankar Pokharel described the move as “ironically concerning,” noting, “In the past, majority governments’ attempts to dissolve Parliament were challenged as unconstitutional. Ironically, those same voices are now supporting dissolution. We must remain vigilant.” The Nepali Congress (NC) also expressed disapproval along with the other major party the CPN Maoist.

The royalists, seeing an opportunity to foster their agenda of restoration of monarchy were not far behind but they thoroughly discredited in the past, there was no traction to their feeble attempts.

The old political order, many of whom have been in office for decades shocked out of power within a week are likely to create challenges for the new interim government.

They would, however, do well to focus on the elections now slated for March 06 next year.

The status of the provincial and the local bodies is unclear for now, will these go in for simultaneous polls with the House of Representatives or complete their tenures remains to be seen.

Multiple Uncertainties, Army Certainty

As is evident from the survey above, there are multiple uncertainties to stability unfolding in Nepal. All stakeholders including the political parties need to accept the inevitable and commit to a “New Nepal,” accepting that they had lost the confidence of the people at large and not necessarily in the parliament. That the parliament had become a symbol of elitism thus leading to wholesale rejection of the parties needs to be clear. Accepting this hard truism alone can provide relief to the people of Nepal to make a lasting transition the second in the 21^st Century.

The Nepal Army must recede to the background and avoid acting as an arbitrator of power having fulfilled an admirable role in the crucial stages of second week of September in the country.

This will ensure that whatever the crisis ahead for the country, the military will continue to retain an independence much desired for long term stability.