“Gen Z uprising” Nepal Army Restores Order: What Next and Why?

Nepal Army Chief Speaking on National Television on September 09 Screen Grab

After two days of unprecedented violence targeting political leaders and state institutions including the parliament and the President’s residence, calm seems to be gradually returning to Nepal on the morning of September 10 [10 AM].

This is after Nepali Army Chief Ashokraj Sigdel appealed on the National Television to protesting groups to enter into dialogue to find a peaceful resolution to the ongoing unrest.

In a televised address on September 09 for a short video of approximately 2 Minutes and 40 Secs he appealed for peace. An English summary of the transcript of the Army Chief’s address which was in Nepali as available and collated by Co Pilot reads as follows-

General Ashok Raj Sigdel appealed for peace and dialogue amid the ongoing Gen Z-led protests that have gripped the country. He called upon protest leaders to suspend their demonstrations and urged all parties to seek a peaceful resolution through dialogue, emphasizing that it is the collective duty of everyone to normalize the current difficult situation and safeguard the supreme interests of the nation.

General Sigdel expressed deep sorrow over the loss of lives and destruction caused during the protests, offering condolences to the families of those killed and wishing a swift recovery for the injured. He stressed that maintaining peace, security, and the integrity of the country is a shared responsibility among all Nepalese citizens.

Reaffirming the Nepal Army's unwavering commitment to the country’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, national unity, and the safety of its people, General Sigdel also warned that protests must not harm Nepal’s national and historical heritage, public and private property, or disrupt the security of diplomatic missions. He concluded his address by urging all citizens to uphold patriotism, social harmony, and unity in navigating the ongoing crisis.

Indeed, the address carried the right blend of appeals to the protestors to suspend the protests and seek peaceful dialogue.

Empathy with those whose loved ones had been lost was another facet to ensure calming the agitated masses.

Finally, he appealed to nationalism reaffirming commitment to the country’s independence and sovereignty.

Possibly this was the charter of the political leadership which failed to understand the mood of the people and thus failed to emphathise with their emotions particularly after 19 were killed on the first day of the protests.

Current  Situation

The Himalayan Times reported as of 10:43 AM “that prohibitory orders and nationwide curfew in response to escalating unrest has been imposed till 5:00 PM today, after which a curfew will be imposed across the country from 6:00 AM on Thursday, Bhadra 26 (September 11”).

The release expressed gratitude to citizens for their cooperation so far in maintaining law and order, while also expressing sorrow over the loss of life and property during the demonstrations as per the Himalayan Times.

With reports of several prisoners escaping the prison, the Army warned "Any such criminal acts carried out under the name of protest will be treated as punishable offences, and strong action will be taken by security forces," the Army stated.

The situation is developing and whether the embers of public anger have been calmed remains to be seen.

What Next for Nepal?

The immediate priority is for the Army and the security forces to restore order and prevention of further acts of arson and damage to public property and civilian lives.

The anger against the current leadership implies that there is limited scope for any return of the current parliament and the best option will be dissolution of the same as the rage is as much against the parliamentarians as against the government.

 Under the circumstances if Parliament is dissolved, the Constitution does not offer a detailed roadmap for simultaneous executive and legislative collapse. 

However, a civilian interim government may be formed, backed by the Nepali Army, to maintain law and order until elections are held.

The Army’s role will be limited to security and stability, not governance, but it may support transitional arrangements during crises.

In case the parliament is not dissolved the President  may call upon political parties to form a national consensus government, however under the present mood this is unlikely to appease the “Gen Z”

Root Cause of Violence

The root cause of the current wave of violence in Nepal is linked to the economic and governance issues. The government is seen as apathetic, corrupt, and ineffective. The angst is reflected with a display of the ostentatious life of children of the leaders called variously by the hash tag “#NepoKid, #NepoBabies, #PoliticiansNepoBabyNepal”  On the contrary high rates of poverty and unemployment, particularly among the youth is a fertile ground for frustration and a sense of hopelessness.

Criticalities and Uncertainties

Key Criticalities	Stability and smooth functioning of a coalition government. Rejuvenation of economy and development, Balancing U.S., India-China relations, post-conflict rights issues, Smooth Federalisation. Socio-economic equity. Overcoming FATF grey list
Key Uncertainties	High level corruption, Governance and political stability, balancing U.S, India China relations, Reaping advantages of the federal System. Economic growth. Graduation from LDC status by 2026. Mitigation of earthquake relief measures.

 Assessment Made on 02 September Prior to Outbreak of Violence at South Asia Forecast

Reflecting People’s Revolt in South Asia

Youth protests in South Asia have become most notable as after Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, Nepal has also seen sudden and unexpected rage amongst the youth which is essentially driven by a combination of economic, social, and political frustrations.

While an event such as blocking of social media triggered Nepal’s protest, the underlying causes are systemic reflecting of failure of democracy to meet the grass roots aspirations of the masses while generating “elitocracy,” exceptional perks and privileges cornered by the elites and their progeny, the #NepoKid.  

High rates of youth unemployment and underemployment are a major factor. In South Asia, a large portion of the population is young, but many leave school without the skills . Getting decent jobs is increasingly difficult, even for those with qualifications. Many face a competitive job market, discriminatory hiring practices, or are pressured to pay bribes.

This struggle is starkly contrasted by the lavish lifestyles of politically connected individuals, often highlighted on social media, which further fuels the anger among ordinary youth.

Social media platforms are not just tools for communication but are a vital space for young people to express themselves, organize, and mobilize. 

The elite in Nepal was seen to block this outlet to prevent expression of frustration.

Finally, violence is also an expression of the times of turbulence in many parts of the world where arms have emerged as the only solution to challenges be it interstate or intra state.