The Digital Versus Conventional: Lessons from the Ukraine Debate

Multiple media sources have reported that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has removed defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov who is credited to have led the country’s wartime defence technology push including focus on a new generation drone development paradigm.

While political issues that dictated the change is of limited interest to this piece  and war time differences are quite common as warfare is a medium that can result in clash of egos between political heads and their generals alike, one reason for the removal is said to be differences between Fedorov and Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky.

General Syrsky given his military experience focused on developing conventional capabilities for war, tanks, artillery guns and missiles. Given sustained Russian offensive across multiple Ukraine Oblasts these were essential to prevent a breakthrough and maintain territorial integrity.

Mr Fedorov was on the other hand focusing on drones, satellite driven reconnaissance and command and control and the digital capacity building marking much success in this domain.

Indeed, the differences in perspectives are not unique to Ukraine.

Contemporary armed forces the world over are mulling over investing in the new tools of war such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles [UAVs] and Counter UA systems which can carry out a virtual panoply of functions that otherwise require several types of platforms and systems for reconnaissance and surveillance, ground attacks – tactical as well as strategic and now even logistics.

The argument for investment in UAVs has increased after extensive use of these by Iran as well in multiple phases of the War with US and Israel and also by Russia in the Ukraine War.

The Indian Armed Forces have extensively debated the issue and the trend has been at present to invest in UAVs and Counter UAS which are cheap to produce and are said to achieve at least theoretically in warfare in the Sub Continent as much bang for less buck with a favourable cost benefit analysis in business terms.

An entire drone industry has spawned in India now mainly led by startups which are looking for providing multiple systems to the armed forces from one way or suicide attack systems to logistics.

With a Ministry of Defence which functions more as a ministry of heavy industry and defence exports and capability building driver for the armed forces also seems to support this logic.

The Indian Army taking the lead given the relative freedom offered for depending on the air force for non surface support has sponsored the concept of ‘eagle on every shoulder’ or a drone for every soldier on the ground and has raised drone units.

The debate in India as in Ukraine has thus veered towards a critic of investing in large platforms as tanks as well as fighter aircraft.

But the last word has possibly not been said in equipping for contemporary warfare in India.

The traditionalists are fighting hard and continue to do hold “ground,” for literally as in the battlefield environment faced by India, given role of territorial sovereignty a key task allocated to the armed forces with contested borders with China and Pakistan – drones cannot substitute the tank, artillery gun or the omniscient infantryman. Yet UAVs will form a key component of a future force.

Yes, if the paradigm of a future war is likely to be only non contact as during Operation Sindoor perhaps drones, missiles and air defence systems would adequately provide the answer.

However, in all non-contact wars as is evident from the ongoing Iran and US – for clear victory, ground action is inevitable and not just the narrative.

And yet as war is a contested medium between two sides, one adversary cannot dictate the character.

Given these truisms for the Indian Armed Forces whose primary role is deterrence, war avoidance and territorial sovereignty – UAVs, missiles and air defence systems will be supplementary and complementary to tanks, artillery guns and infantry carriers. This will also give the commanders strategic as well as operational options, while ensuring tangible achievement of success rather than the narrative.