Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) commonly known as North Korea promulgated a law of the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK on the state policy on nuclear forces on 8th September 2022 proclaiming itself as a state with nuclear weapons.
The response from North Korea’s principal adversaries Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States was aggressive reflecting brinkmanship.
Here is a review of the developments that are of concern taking the Korean Peninsula on the edge-
North Korea’s Law
As per North Korea’s law, ‘the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK decides as follows in order to make the nuclear forces, the backbone of the state defence capacity, and discharge their heavy mission in a responsible manner.’
The main mission of the nuclear forces is defined as, “to deter a war by making hostile forces have a clear understanding of the fact that the military confrontation with the DPRK brings about ruin and give up attempts at aggression and attack”.
Chairman Kim Jong un of the DPRK also stated clearly that the country will not give up nuclear weapons.
During the parliament’s meeting, Kim said in a speech that his country will never abandon its nuclear weapons to cope with U.S. threats and “accused the United States of attempting a regime change by weakening the North’s defences”.
“The utmost significance of legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons,” said North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un while reverting the South Korean response.
“Let them sanction us for 100 days, 1,000 days, 10 years or 100 years.
“We will never give up our rights to self-defence that preserves our country’s existence and the safety of our people just to temporarily ease the difficulties we are experiencing now,” Kim stated in his speech.
Republic of Korea (ROK) Response
Responding to the development for the first time, Republic of Korea or South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the legislation would only deepen North Korea’s isolation and prompt Seoul and Washington to “further strengthen their deterrence and reaction capacities.”
The Ministry claimed that to deter North Korea from using nuclear weapons, that South Korea will sharply boost its own pre-emptive attack plan, missile defence and massive retaliation capacities while seeking a greater U.S. security commitment to defend its ally with all available means, including the nuclear one.
“We warn that the North Korean government would face the overwhelming response by the South Korea-U.S. military alliance and go on the path of self-destruction, if it attempts to use nuclear weapons,” Moon Hong Sik, an acting ministry spokesperson, told reporters as per an AP Report.
Moon also added the North's nuclear policy move would further strengthen the alliance's capabilities to deter and respond to the security threats, deepen its international isolation and aggravate the suffering of ordinary North Koreans.
Moon also underlined the firm resolve of South Korea for North’s complete denuclearisation and strengthening the credibility of the U.S.' extended deterrence to make the North unable to use its nuclear arms as per Yonhap News Agency.
However, the law, according to South Korea’s defence ministry, would only deepen North Korea’s isolation and prompt Seoul and Washington to “further strengthen their deterrence and reaction capacities”. The ministry added that South Korea will sharply boost its own pre-emptive attack plan, missile defence and massive retaliation capacities. It will also seek greater security commitment from the US to defend itself using all available means, including the nuclear one.
Since taking office in May, South Korea’s new conservative government, led by President Yoon Suk Yeol, has said it would take a tougher stance on North Korean provocation but also offered massive support plans if the North denuclearizes. North Korea has bluntly rejected that aid-for-disarmament offer and unleashed crude insults on the Yoon government.
South Korea-US Response
Following the South Korean response, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre earlier said the United States “remains fully committed to the defence of (South Korea), using the full range of defence capabilities.” Jean-Pierre also said the United States has no hostile intent toward North Korea and that it remains focused on pursuing close coordination with its allies to advance a shared objective of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
The North's announcement on the nuclear policy codification came as the allies are preparing to hold a session of the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) in Washington, D.C., on Friday for the first time since 2018.
The EDSCG, a gathering of the two countries' vice-ministerial defence and diplomatic officials, has not been held since its second and last session in January 2018, when the then liberal Moon Jae-in administration pushed for an initiative to promote inter-Korean rapprochement.
The North's nuclear policy is expected to be part of discussions between the South and the U.S. that have been working on updating their joint wartime contingency plans to reflect the North's evolving military threats, observers said.
"I would like to say that the efforts to update wartime operational plans are ongoing at this point," Moon said of the plans that the allies agreed to update during their defence ministerial talks in December last year.
Meanwhile, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup met Michele Flournoy, the chair of the Washington-based Center for a New American Security (CNAS)'s board of directors, to discuss the two countries' alliance and North Korean threats, according to his ministry.
Noting the North has hinted at its intention to use nuclear weapons, Lee called the security situation here "very grave," and stressed that the allies are maintaining a firm combined defence posture to counter the threats. He added that there would be "substantive" discussions between Seoul and Washington about strengthening their defence posture during the EDSCG session later this week.
Lee and Flournoy, who served as undersecretary of defence for policy from 2009 to 2012, agreed to work together in the process of the two countries' partnership developing into a global comprehensive strategic alliance, the ministry said.
Experts’ Take
Despite North Korea's increasingly aggressive nuclear doctrine, some experts say the country — outgunned by more superior U.S. and South Korean forces — will still unlikely to use its nuclear weapons first.
One view is that the loose wording may be to intimidate the United States in making concessions by projecting a higher level of threat.
Some experts say the North Korean move is also designed to strengthen the control of Kim Jong Un’s leadership in the face of hardships caused by the pandemic and border closures.
South Korea has also adopted a brinkmanship approach which is common to conservative government’s approach and the wording used in the past as well.
When South Korea was governed by another conservative leader, Park Geun-Hye, from 2013-2017, her government also warned North Korea would evaporate from Earth or self-destruct with its provocations, as the North conducted a slew of missile and nuclear tests.
Liberal President Moon Jae-in, who served from 2017 until this year, championed greater reconciliation between the Koreas. He was credited for arranging now-stalled nuclear diplomacy between Pyongyang and Washington but also faced criticism that such diplomacy only allowed Kim Jong Un to buy time to perfect weapons technology while enjoying an elevated standing on the world stage.
Dangerous Portends
Given the way North Korea has clandestinely acquired nuclear weapons, the mission and role of these and manner of employment denote a pre-emptive strike which could be undertaken by an irrational leadership perceiving a threat to regime survival.
The variety of types of delivery systems claimed including hypersonic and tactical missiles is another dangerous portend.
A tactical nuclear missile if launched in a populated area could cause immeasurable damage and harm.
What should be done?
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has categorically stated that the country will not give up nuclear weapons thus virtually ruling out denuclearisation which has been a lofty goal of the United States and others.
Clearly the strategy for denuclearisation adopted by the United States whether step by step or all or nothing by President Obama and Trump respectively has failed.
Moreover, the Biden administration has for the past 20 months failed to take any significant initiative toward denuclearisation.
The options today could be limited to capping North Korean nuclear and missile capability which appears to be a non-starter for now requiring coordination between the three major powers – the United States, China and Russia.
While pursuing the above option, the best-case scenario appears to be ensuring that North Korea is not able to transfer the know-how to other states waiting to acquire just such a capability.
[Report Compilation by Harshita Panwar]