Simulating Pak Nuclear Umbrella for Saudi Arabia

A simulation of implications and responses of Pakistan Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement in the Middle East and South Asia

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on September 17^th [2025] signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, pledging to strengthen military cooperation and affirming that any act of aggression against one will be treated as an attack on both.

This has significant impact on the regional dynamics in West Asia [Middle East] as well as in South Asia given Pakistan’s nuclear weapons armed status, inter state rivalries in the Middle East and Pak India strategic conflict, the last round of which was held in May this year. Thus, a simulation of the impact in West and South Asia and India’s response will assume

importance.

But first the details of the pact and reasons for the concern.

The Agreement

The Agreement was signed during Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s state visit to Riyadh which followed just two days after they had met in a wider multilateral conference in Doha Qatar following Israeli attacks on Hamas political leaders in the Qatari capital.

That something was cooking was obvious, yet the momentous decision has taken many by surprise in an era of global and regional unpredictability.

As per Pakistan Saudi Arabia Joint Statement issued on the occasion, “ Building on the historic partnership extending for nearly eight decades between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, and based on the bonds of brotherhood and Islamic solidarity, as well as shared strategic interests and close defense cooperation between the two countries, HRH the Crown Prince and the Pakistani prime minister signed a

Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement”.

“This agreement, which reflects the shared commitment of both nations to enhance their security and to achieving security and peace in the region and the world, aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression,” it added.

The aspect of this being a defensive pact with emphasis on deterrence needs to be underlined.

Importantly agreement states, “that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”.

Saudi Pak defence ties have included Pakistani military trainers stationed in the Kingdomwhich has now been formalised into joint deterrence transforming ties to a military alliance. Interestingly Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir was part of the, “family photo,” so to say which included top leadership of the two countries.

The implication though not explicitly stated is that Pakistan’s nuclear and conventional weapons are now committed to deterrence of any threat to Saudi Arabia.

Simulating Pak Nuclear Umbrella in West Asia.

In a scenario that was witnessed recently with Israeli strikes in Doha, there is adequate guarantee for Riyadh of deterrence given the nuclear umbrella provided by Pakistan.

While so far the United States was a guarantor of stability in the region particularly focused on concerns of the Gulf States from Iran, Washington has lost credibility after supporting or at least being fuzzy over the Israeli strikes in Doha.

The US support to Israel under the Trump administration may have emboldened Jerusalem to go alone and inform Washington at the last minute.

How the United States reacts to the Pak Saudi agreement remains to be seen? How far Pak will have the capability to support other Gulf countries such as the UAE and Qatar after Saudi Arabia is also a question mark.

Will this be a diplomatic and political cover or lead to physical deployment of nuclear weapons – though most unlikely remains to be seen.

Regional -West Asia Scenario

In the complex regional politics of West Asia, it should be noted that not only Israel but also Iran has recently targeted a US base in Qatar though after providing adequate notice to Washington as well as Doha.

These strikes were seen as symbolic demonstration to the United States of its vulnerability after US bombers targeted Iran’s nuclear weapons sites virtually blocking the shafts while the actual level of destruction is being debated.

In a future scenario where Iran develops nuclear or even long range lethal missile capability Pakistani deterrence will remain a factor for consideration by Tehran.

There are reports unconfirmed by Iran that before the landmark agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Ali Larijani, Head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and senior aide of the Iranian Supreme leader, met with the Saudi crown prince in Riyadh and was taken into confidence.

There are other major actors in the region which have a traditional rivalry with Saudi Arabia including Turkey. Pakistan has close relations with Turkey as well and yet as we go forward complications could arise due to Turkic objective of expanding influence in the region and beyond.

In the larger perspective, commitment to the alliance could mean that Pakistan could be embroiled in Middle East conflicts in the future after having resisted Saudi pressure to join the Yemen war in 2015.

South Asian Scenario

In terms of impact on India Pakistan bilateral conflict dynamics the clause of the agreement which states, “that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” is important.

Clearly this will imply that Saudi Arabia is bound to come to Pakistan’s assistance in case of any Indian aggression against Pakistan as during Operation Sindoor the May 2025 – India Pak skirmish following the Pahalgam terrorist attack by Pak supported Lashkar E Taiyyaba acolyte The Resistance Front.

Essentially Saudi Arabia may provide political and diplomatic support to Pakistan in case of another skirmish with India.

This, will imply considerable restraint on Delhi and in effect, any such future retributive operation Riyadh will have to be taken into confidence.

Does this provide a cover for Pak to continue the campaign of terror in Jammu and Kashmir and rest of India in the belief that Saudi Arabia will protect against an Indian response will need further deliberation.

On the other hand, India could use the leverage with Riyadh with an expanded relations in the past few years to bear pressure on Pakistan to neuter terrorist groups a complex factor in the best of cases.

India’s Guarded Reaction

India’s official reaction has been as anticipated guarded.  Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal said in a post on X on September 17^th that India was aware of the development, and that it would study its implications for New Delhi's security and for regional stability.

"We will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability. The government remains committed to protecting India's national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains," said Jaiswal.

The statement added that the Indian government was already aware that the development, which it said "formalises a long-standing arrangement between the two countries", was under consideration.

In a media briefing on September 19^th, Jaiswal, the Official Spokesperson reiterated, “we have a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia. It is multi-dimensional, and in recent times it has strengthened considerably. Our expectation is that our strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia will be pursued keeping in mind mutual interests and sensitivities, within the framework of this partnership”.

“India and Saudi Arabia, we have a wide ranging strategic partnership which has deepened in the last several years considerably. We expect that this strategic partnership will keep in mind mutual interest and sensitivities,” he added.

Clearly Indian strategic planners have their work cut out to meet the new challenge emerging from the Pakistan Saudi Arabia “alliance,” and turn it into an opportunity for sustaining India’s national security and interests against a core rival Islamabad and with a key partner – Riyadh.