PAKISTAN TERRORISM FORECAST AUGUST 2025

Graphic Created from Data from SATP.org

Pakistan's terror scenario appears grim given the rising fatalities from 2021 onwards and the lack of the will and capacity of the hybrid state particularly the Army to meet the challenge of multiple terrrorist groups operating in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Pakistan's counter terrorism failures on multiple fronts are tracked as given below-

Counter Terrorism Policy

Recently Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office said the premier chaired a meeting of the Steering Committee on Counter-Terrorism and Establishment of the State Writ (Harden the State) on July 31 attended by Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, National Security Adviser Lieutenant General Muhammad Asim Malik, PM aide Rana Sanallah, the four provincial chief secretaries and police chief, ministers and officials.

The prime minister said the state had adopted a “multi-pronged strategy” in the war against terrorism and made “full and effective use” of important elements such as ground operations, legislation, meaningful public communication and discouraging extremist thinking.  None of these vectors are working as the multi group terrorist threat is increasing

Multiple Groups

As a TRAC Incident Report states Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Affiliate Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) the Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP) coalition, of which HGB is a core member along with Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) and Harkat Inqilab-e-Islami Pakistan (HIIP), Jaish-e-Fursan Muhammad (JFM) wing, Islamic State Khurasan (ISKP) militants and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are the multiple groups identified active in Kyber Pakhtunkhwa. There are more in Balochistan one of which the Majeed Brigade part of the  Balochistan Liberation Army which was banned by the United States Secretary of  State on August 11.

These groups are well entrenched and the Pakistan security forces are facing challenges in overcoming the same.

Terrorist Superior Technology

What more these are fiendling superior technology as on March 27, 2025, KP Inspector General of Police (IGP) Zulfiqar Hameed observed that his department lacked modern equipment to fight terrorism. Terrorists were using advanced weaponry, including quadcopters, which the local Police were unable to counter due to lack of equipment.

IGP Hameed asserted: "They [terrorists] have acquired the latest US weapons and modern gadgets. They're carrying out quadcopter attacks. If we don't advance, how will we fight back, since we don't have anti-quadcopter technology?" For instance the Bannu Division has so far witnessed at least 15 terrorist-orchestrated quadcopter drone attacks since June 25, resulting in three fatalities and 17 persons injured notes Tushar Ranjan Mohanty Research Associate; Institute for Conflict Management in South Asia Intelligence Review [SAIR] Weekly Assessments & Briefings. Volume 24, No. 8, August 11, 2025 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Bannu Division: Epicentre of Terrorism,

India Blame Game and Ground Reality

In the past few months after the Pahalgam terrorist attack carried out by the Pakistan supported Lashkar e Taiyyaba acolyte in Jammu and Kashmir was tagged to that country, Pak DG ISPR has laid emphasis on labeling all terrorist attacks in the country as by groups as supported by India [Fitna al Hindustan].

This however belies the factual structure of terrorist groups in Pakistan with multitude subgroups and affiliations which operate under own dynamics and have scant links with India. Instead of narrative building, a sustained counter terror policy weaving in public support with counter terrorist operations would have been more fruitful.

Political Consensus

All Party consensus on countering terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is also a dampener of prospects.

With deteriorating law and situation in the region, the security establishment and Federal Government are planning major operations. However, on August 2, 2025, KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur asserted that the federation should not be allowed to conduct another military operation in the province and its tribal areas.

The political tussle between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led KP Provincial Government and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)-led Federal Government, has created space that the terrorists are fully exploiting to attack SFs and security establishments in the tribal areas, particularly in the Bannu Division.

Jirgas

Jirgas or a traditional council comprising of community elders and influencers have a major role in Pakistan’s tribal society. They act as mediators for engaging the state and the local population drawing legitimacy from the traditional adjudication system. Thus, they have been tasked by the military to convince the public to accept massed military attacks. Efforts to bring the jirgas on board have failed in Bajaur and Mohmand amongst other tribal districts. While, the military could launch operations unilaterally with lack of support from the local people these can achieve only middling success.  

Conclusion

As the State and the military lacks the political will and the combat capacity to counter terrorism, flogging Afghanistan and India for providing support has emerged as a fait accomplii.

To mask failures on the home front, Pak Chief of Army Staff’s nuclear rhetoric is marked to increase tensions with India, keep his American counter parts on stream but only increase the agony of his people caught in the hybrid regime where the civilian government is acting as the pawn of the military failing the public as it is not accountable to the masses but the military which had gerrymandered it into power.