It’s a violent World and Ukraine Russia is not the only State on State Conflict
All eyes are turned on Ukraine where the Russian offensive continues for the 90th day on May 24. There are no hopes of formal negotiations leading to a conclusive cease fire which is a mere chimera now.
Russian forces continued the offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts connecting the southern corridor to Crimea and beyond.
Setting up of local administration which is loyal to Moscow is ongoing in each area seized while Ukrainian resistance is continuing to checkmate a roll over but cannot prevent the incremental occupation of territory in the East. Both sides are making heavy use of artillery and missiles while infantry battles of the conventional kind appear to be few and far between.
Special forces as the Chechnyan guards, snipers, UAVs and drones are the new tactics of this War.
But Ukraine and Russia are not the only States which are having violent conflict.
A recent report by SIPRI “Environment of Peace,” has indicated that, “between 2010 and 2020 the number of state-based armed conflicts roughly doubled (to 56), as did the number of conflict deaths”.
In this decade the number of refugees and displaced persons due to conflict also doubled to 82.4 million.
In the nuclear domain in 2020 for the first time after several years the number of operationally deployed nuclear warheads increased and in 2021 military spending surpassed $2 trillion for the first time which is expected to rise even more in 2022 as nations in Europe overcome their hesitation in budgeting for defence after the War in Ukraine.
The Report focuses on the convergence of environment and security crises for which the world is unprepared.
The Report is not an exaggeration
Looking at Asia the number of violent conflicts have increased over the past few years.
In South Asia, in Myanmar – the Tatmadaw or armed forces are engaged in fighting a parallel government the National Unity Government which has mobilized large number of disparate forces the People’s Democratic Force (PDF).
The brutal tactics used by the Myanmar Army of burning down villages leading to mass eviction of hundreds has led to equally violent actions in a civil war that is slowly but surely spiraling out of control.
The U.S. China hyper competition has not entered the military kinetic phase so far but may increasingly move in that direction given escalation of rhetoric, dissuasive postures adopted by the adversarial relations with allies which see safety in army.
North Korea China dyad is well established, unrestrained nuclear testing by Pyongyang since January this year has included missiles ranging from the hypersonic to SLBMs and ICBMs though the claims have not been fully verified. Yet Beijing seems to be turning a close eye towards the same.
United States continued to strengthen the military alliance with South Korea and Japan with the visit of the US President Joe Biden to an aerospace command near Seoul on May 22.
The QUAD and Indo Pacific Economic Framework [IPEF]may only add to China perceiving this as a partnership for containment.
India a member of the QUAD and possible the IPEF is locked in an armed face off with China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) where two years back in 2020, there was a first clash drawing blood in decades though no lethal arms were employed.
Going further West in the Middle East -the shadow war between Iran and allies ranging from state and non state actors with Israel is continuing. This grey zone war has fallen into the action -reaction spiral with an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth approach.
A divided Syria remains at war with interventions by major state actors, the United States, Russia, Israel Iran and Turkey. The Kurdish ethnic zone is presently divided between at least three states which are seeing violence – Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
A months cease fire holds Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen on the edge
Ukraine is no doubt the most violent conflict of these which has led to maximum displacements in recent months, yet the other wars or near wars are even more dangerous.
Those listed above are those wars which have received wider attention, there are others which have failed to catch the eyes of the masses and analysts alike.
Importantly the SIPRI Report highlights that World leaders may not be preparing for the convergence of complex and unpredictable risks despite the devastation caused by COVID 19 pandemic in the past two years.